The School of Odds
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Vimmerby HC v Södertälje SK

Kickoff: 2026-03-04 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vimmerby HC (Local)

Prediction 29.46%3.39fair odd
EV -4.27%
Edge -1.31%
Kelly -1.90%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.61%29.38%29.51%30.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.113.103.2533.33%32.20%32.26%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Södertälje SK (Visit)

Prediction 47.35%2.11fair odd
EV -5.30%
Edge -2.65%
Kelly -5.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.60%47.37%47.36%47.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.901.941.952.0052.63%51.48%51.28%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.20%4.31fair odd
EV -2.58%
Edge -0.614%
Kelly -0.806%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.07%23.25%23.13%23.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.094.204.2026.67%24.45%23.81%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vimmerby HC (Local): 29.46%; Södertälje SK (Visit): 47.35%; Draw: 23.20%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.31. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.20, with an expected value of -2.58%; they did not produce positive expected value.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.26%EV -4.27%E -1.31%K -1.90%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.55%EV -5.30%E -2.65%K -5.30%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -4.90%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-04 17:10
1xBet🎯3.21I 31.15%NM 28.61%EV -5.45%E -1.70%K -2.46%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.84%EV -9.09%E -4.74%K -9.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -9.54%E -2.45%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-03 14:05
Marathon Bet🎯3.18I 31.45%NM 28.66%EV -6.33%E -1.99%K -2.90%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.97%EV -10.04%E -5.28%K -11.15%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -9.54%E -2.45%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-03 14:03
Unibet (UK)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.70%EV -7.21%E -2.29%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.49%EV -6.72%E -3.41%K -6.93%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -4.90%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-04 04:29
Unibet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -8.69%E -2.80%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.64%EV -7.20%E -3.67%K -7.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.23%EV -2.58%E -0.614%K -0.806%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-04 17:10
Grosvenor🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -8.69%E -2.80%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -7.67%E -3.93%K -8.07%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -2.58%E -0.614%K -0.806%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-04 17:10
Unibet (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -8.69%E -2.80%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -7.67%E -3.93%K -8.07%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -2.58%E -0.614%K -0.806%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-04 17:10
Unibet (NL)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -8.69%E -2.80%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -7.67%E -3.93%K -8.07%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -2.58%E -0.614%K -0.806%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-04 17:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -8.69%E -2.80%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -7.67%E -3.93%K -8.07%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -2.58%E -0.614%K -0.806%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-04 17:10
ATG (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -8.69%E -2.80%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -7.67%E -3.93%K -8.07%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -2.58%E -0.614%K -0.806%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-04 17:10
Svenska Spel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -8.69%E -2.80%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -7.67%E -3.93%K -8.07%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -2.58%E -0.614%K -0.806%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-04 17:10
LeoVegas🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -10.16%E -3.33%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.54%EV -7.67%E -3.93%K -8.07%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -2.58%E -0.614%K -0.806%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-04 17:10
Codere (IT)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.60%EV -10.16%E -3.33%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.26%EV -9.56%E -5.01%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.15%EV -9.54%E -2.45%K -3.29%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-04 04:29
TABtouch🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.36%EV -11.63%E -3.88%K -5.82%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.43%EV -9.09%E -4.74%K -9.88%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.21%EV -4.90%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-04 17:10
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.67%EV -11.63%E -3.88%K -5.82%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.60%EV -9.56%E -5.01%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -13.02%E -3.47%K -4.73%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-04 04:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%5.2%2026-03-04 17:10
Betsson🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%5.2%2026-03-04 17:10
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%6.2%2026-03-04 09:26
Pinnacle🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.41%7.5%2026-03-03 12:45
Smarkets◎2.26I 44.25%NM 40.99%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.01%7.9%2026-03-04 06:30
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%8.0%2026-03-03 10:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%8.0%2026-03-03 10:30
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%8.0%2026-03-03 10:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%8.0%2026-03-03 10:30