The School of Odds
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Västerås IK v Södertälje SK

Kickoff: 2026-09-23 17:00 UTC

Final: Västerås IK 0–4 Södertälje SK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Västerås IK (Local)

Prediction 29.21%3.42fair odd
EV +5.14%
Edge +1.43%
Kelly +1.98%
Growth +0.102%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.36%29.14%29.51%30.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.403.503.6033.33%29.46%28.57%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Södertälje SK (Visit)

Prediction 47.90%2.09fair odd
EV -6.59%
Edge -3.38%
Kelly -6.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.30%47.96%47.67%49.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.911.901.9554.64%52.45%52.49%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.89%4.37fair odd
EV -6.14%
Edge -1.50%
Kelly -1.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.59%22.89%22.83%23.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.803.983.984.1026.32%25.14%25.16%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Västerås IK (Local): 29.21%; Södertälje SK (Visit): 47.90%; Draw: 22.89%. For Västerås IK (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.42. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.14%.

6 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.56%EV +5.14%E +1.43%K +1.98%G +0.102%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.54%EV -7.55%E -3.91%K -8.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.90%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-23 16:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.56%EV +5.14%E +1.43%K +1.98%G +0.102%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.54%EV -7.55%E -3.91%K -8.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.90%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-23 16:00
ATG (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.56%EV +5.14%E +1.43%K +1.98%G +0.102%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.54%EV -7.55%E -3.91%K -8.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.90%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-23 16:00
Svenska Spel🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.56%EV +5.14%E +1.43%K +1.98%G +0.102%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.54%EV -7.55%E -3.91%K -8.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.90%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-23 16:00
Unibet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV +3.68%E +1.04%K +1.44%G +0.053%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.73%EV -9.47%E -5.01%K -10.64%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.79%EV -9.57%E -2.42%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-23 16:00
Grosvenor🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.41%EV +3.68%E +1.04%K +1.44%G +0.053%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.86%EV -9.95%E -5.29%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.73%EV -9.57%E -2.42%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-23 16:00
Unibet (NL)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.41%EV +3.68%E +1.04%K +1.44%G +0.053%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.86%EV -9.95%E -5.29%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.73%EV -9.57%E -2.42%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-23 16:00
TABtouch🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.36%EV +0.760%E +0.220%K +0.310%G +0.002%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.70%EV -12.34%E -6.74%K -14.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -13.01%E -3.42%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-23 16:00
Coolbet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.99%EV -0.701%E -0.206%K -0.292%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.80%EV -6.59%E -3.38%K -6.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.21%EV -6.14%E -1.50%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-21 20:34
1xBet🎯3.23I 30.96%NM 28.41%EV -5.67%E -1.75%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.30%EV -8.99%E -4.73%K -9.99%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 23.29%EV -9.80%E -2.49%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-23 02:19
Marathon Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.43%EV -9.95%E -5.29%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 23.11%EV -9.80%E -2.49%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-23 02:15
Unibet (UK)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -8.00%E -2.54%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.74%EV -6.59%E -3.38%K -6.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.71%EV -6.14%E -1.50%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-22 17:00
Codere (IT)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.61%EV -10.92%E -3.58%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.53%EV -8.99%E -4.73%K -9.99%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.86%EV -9.57%E -2.42%K -3.25%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-21 17:04
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -12.38%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.30%EV -8.51%E -4.45%K -9.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.59%EV -8.43%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-22 09:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (6)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%5.4%2026-09-23 02:15
Betsson🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%5.4%2026-09-23 02:15
Pinnacle🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 39.49%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.51%7.3%2026-09-21 04:20
Smarkets◎2.26I 44.25%NM 40.84%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.16%8.4%2026-09-23 05:05
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%8.8%2026-09-21 14:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%8.8%2026-09-21 14:34