The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Västerås IK v Östersunds IK

Kickoff: 2026-10-07 17:00 UTC

Final: Västerås IK 0–1 Östersunds IK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Västerås IK (Local)

Prediction 44.13%2.27fair odd
EV -3.80%
Edge -1.74%
Kelly -3.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.53%44.13%44.08%44.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.072.132.142.1848.31%46.84%46.73%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Östersunds IK (Visit)

Prediction 33.23%3.01fair odd
EV -3.64%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -1.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.77%33.23%33.34%34.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.772.752.9037.04%36.07%36.36%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.64%4.42fair odd
EV -1.50%
Edge -0.345%
Kelly -0.448%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.98%22.64%22.58%23.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.984.214.254.3525.13%23.76%23.53%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Västerås IK (Local): 44.13%; Östersunds IK (Visit): 33.23%; Draw: 22.64%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.42. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.35, with an expected value of -1.50%; they did not produce positive expected value.

4 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.87%EV -3.80%E -1.74%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.15%EV -6.96%E -2.49%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.98%EV -1.50%E -0.345%K -0.448%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-05 11:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.87%EV -3.80%E -1.74%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.15%EV -6.96%E -2.49%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.98%EV -1.50%E -0.345%K -0.448%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-05 11:19
Svenska Spel🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.87%EV -3.80%E -1.74%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.15%EV -6.96%E -2.49%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.98%EV -1.50%E -0.345%K -0.448%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-05 11:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.87%EV -3.80%E -1.74%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.15%EV -6.96%E -2.49%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.98%EV -1.50%E -0.345%K -0.448%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-05 11:20
Unibet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.83%EV -5.56%E -2.60%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -8.63%E -3.14%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.07%EV -3.76%E -0.886%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-05 11:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.83%EV -5.56%E -2.60%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -8.63%E -3.14%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.07%EV -3.76%E -0.886%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-05 11:20
Grosvenor🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.83%EV -5.56%E -2.60%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -8.63%E -3.14%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.07%EV -3.76%E -0.886%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-05 11:20
Coolbet🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 44.61%EV -6.00%E -2.82%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.77%EV -3.64%E -1.26%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.62%EV -4.90%E -1.17%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-04 20:35
1xBet🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 43.53%EV -6.89%E -3.26%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.40%EV -8.63%E -3.14%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.08%EV -9.88%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-05 09:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 43.60%EV -7.77%E -3.72%K -7.13%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.50%EV -9.62%E -3.54%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 22.90%EV -9.88%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-05 09:19
Unibet (UK)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.18%EV -8.21%E -3.95%K -7.60%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -8.63%E -3.14%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV -7.16%E -1.75%K -2.31%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-05 10:55
TABtouch🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.02%EV -8.65%E -4.18%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.75%EV -10.29%E -3.81%K -6.05%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.23%EV -7.16%E -1.75%K -2.31%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-05 11:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (4)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%5.3%2026-10-05 11:20
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%5.3%2026-10-05 11:19
Pinnacle🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.20%2.13I 46.95%NM 43.80%7.2%2026-10-04 20:55
Smarkets◎1.63I 61.35%NM 55.59%2.04I 49.02%NM 44.41%10.4%2026-10-05 10:56