The School of Odds
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Västerås IK v Kalmar HC

Kickoff: 2026-09-28 17:00 UTC

Final: Västerås IK 2–3 Kalmar HC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Västerås IK (Local)

Prediction 24.54%4.07fair odd
EV +1.86%
Edge +0.448%
Kelly +0.591%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 4.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.92%24.49%24.88%25.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.913.954.1528.57%25.55%25.32%24.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kalmar HC (Visit)

Prediction 54.27%1.84fair odd
EV -6.12%
Edge -3.54%
Kelly -8.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.88%54.35%53.92%56.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.631.691.691.7361.35%59.12%59.00%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.19%4.72fair odd
EV -0.406%
Edge -0.086%
Kelly -0.110%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.40%21.16%21.20%21.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.514.554.7023.81%22.17%21.98%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Västerås IK (Local): 24.54%; Kalmar HC (Visit): 54.27%; Draw: 21.19%. For Västerås IK (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.07. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.86%.

6 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯4.15I 24.10%NM 22.92%EV +1.86%E +0.448%K +0.591%G +0.011%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.95%EV -7.75%E -4.56%K -11.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.14%EV -4.64%E -1.03%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-28 16:29
Unibet (SE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.50%EV +0.633%E +0.154%K +0.204%G +0.001%1.72I 58.14%NM 56.01%EV -6.66%E -3.87%K -9.26%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.50%EV -0.406%E -0.086%K -0.110%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-28 16:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.50%EV +0.633%E +0.154%K +0.204%G +0.001%1.72I 58.14%NM 56.01%EV -6.66%E -3.87%K -9.26%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.50%EV -0.406%E -0.086%K -0.110%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-28 16:05
Svenska Spel🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.50%EV +0.633%E +0.154%K +0.204%G +0.001%1.72I 58.14%NM 56.01%EV -6.66%E -3.87%K -9.26%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.50%EV -0.406%E -0.086%K -0.110%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-28 16:04
ATG (SE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.50%EV +0.633%E +0.154%K +0.204%G +0.001%1.72I 58.14%NM 56.01%EV -6.66%E -3.87%K -9.26%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.50%EV -0.406%E -0.086%K -0.110%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-28 16:05
Unibet🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -3.05%E -0.772%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.85%EV -8.83%E -5.26%K -12.99%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -2.52%E -0.549%K -0.701%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-28 16:05
Grosvenor🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -3.05%E -0.772%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.85%EV -8.83%E -5.26%K -12.99%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -2.52%E -0.549%K -0.701%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-28 16:04
Unibet (NL)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -3.05%E -0.772%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.85%EV -8.83%E -5.26%K -12.99%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -2.52%E -0.549%K -0.701%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-28 16:05
1xBet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.84%EV -5.50%E -1.43%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.30%EV -9.92%E -5.98%K -15.03%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -6.76%E -1.54%K -1.99%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-28 16:38
TABtouch🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.60%EV -5.50%E -1.43%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 55.75%EV -11.55%E -7.08%K -18.33%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.65%EV -6.76%E -1.54%K -1.99%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-28 16:04
Marathon Bet🎯3.84I 26.04%NM 23.73%EV -5.75%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 55.56%EV -11.01%E -6.71%K -17.20%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.71%EV -6.76%E -1.54%K -1.99%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-28 16:35
Unibet (UK)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -7.96%E -2.12%K -2.89%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.92%EV -6.12%E -3.54%K -8.39%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -6.76%E -1.54%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-28 13:40
Codere (IT)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.08%EV -11.64%E -3.23%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 53.42%EV -8.29%E -4.91%K -12.02%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.50%EV -11.00%E -2.62%K -3.44%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-28 13:40
Betway🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.84%EV -14.09%E -4.03%K -5.64%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 52.88%EV -7.21%E -4.21%K -10.15%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.28%EV -9.94%E -2.34%K -3.06%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-28 04:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (6)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%5.2%2026-09-28 16:40
NordicBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%5.2%2026-09-28 16:40
Coral🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%7.6%2026-09-27 13:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%7.6%2026-09-27 13:40
Pinnacle🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 32.86%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.14%7.9%2026-09-28 13:55
Smarkets◎2.60I 38.46%NM 35.48%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.52%8.4%2026-09-28 13:40