The School of Odds
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Västerås IK v IK Oskarshamn

Kickoff: 2026-10-02 17:00 UTC

Final: Västerås IK 5–1 IK Oskarshamn

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Västerås IK (Local)

Prediction 37.49%2.67fair odd
EV +6.84%
Edge +2.40%
Kelly +3.70%
Growth +0.253%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.51%37.05%37.45%38.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.662.772.8542.02%37.54%36.04%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

IK Oskarshamn (Visit)

Prediction 39.79%2.51fair odd
EV -6.89%
Edge -2.94%
Kelly -5.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.94%40.20%39.79%43.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.122.242.232.3447.17%44.67%44.84%42.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.72%4.40fair odd
EV -5.71%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -1.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.50%22.74%22.76%23.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.034.004.1525.97%24.81%25.00%24.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Västerås IK (Local): 37.49%; IK Oskarshamn (Visit): 39.79%; Draw: 22.72%. For Västerås IK (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.67. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.84%.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.63%EV +6.84%E +2.40%K +3.70%G +0.253%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.99%EV -11.26%E -5.05%K -9.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.38%EV -6.84%E -1.67%K -2.21%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-02 06:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.63%EV +6.84%E +2.40%K +3.70%G +0.253%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.99%EV -11.26%E -5.05%K -9.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.38%EV -6.84%E -1.67%K -2.21%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-02 06:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.63%EV +6.84%E +2.40%K +3.70%G +0.253%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.99%EV -11.26%E -5.05%K -9.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.38%EV -6.84%E -1.67%K -2.21%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-02 06:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.63%EV +6.84%E +2.40%K +3.70%G +0.253%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.99%EV -11.26%E -5.05%K -9.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.38%EV -6.84%E -1.67%K -2.21%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-02 06:14
Unibet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.51%EV +4.96%E +1.77%K +2.76%G +0.137%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.04%EV -13.25%E -6.08%K -11.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -9.12%E -2.28%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-02 06:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.51%EV +4.96%E +1.77%K +2.76%G +0.137%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.04%EV -13.25%E -6.08%K -11.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -9.12%E -2.28%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-02 06:15
Grosvenor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.51%EV +4.96%E +1.77%K +2.76%G +0.137%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.04%EV -13.25%E -6.08%K -11.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -9.12%E -2.28%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-02 06:15
Coolbet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.66%EV +3.09%E +1.12%K +1.77%G +0.055%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.37%EV -10.47%E -4.65%K -8.37%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.97%EV -5.71%E -1.38%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-30 21:30
TABtouch🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.61%EV +1.21%E +0.450%K +0.715%G +0.009%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.81%EV -15.64%E -7.38%K -13.97%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.57%EV -12.52%E -3.25%K -4.39%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-02 06:14
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.75%EV -8.16%E -3.33%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.69%EV -7.28%E -3.13%K -5.48%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.56%EV -6.84%E -1.67%K -2.21%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-02 15:35
Codere (IT)🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 37.36%EV -9.66%E -4.01%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 39.84%EV -10.07%E -4.46%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.80%EV -10.25%E -2.60%K -3.48%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-02 15:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.98%EV -10.03%E -4.18%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.12%EV -7.28%E -3.13%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 22.90%EV -9.57%E -2.40%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-02 16:54
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.50%EV -10.03%E -4.18%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -10.47%E -4.65%K -8.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -9.12%E -2.28%K -3.04%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-02 15:35
1xBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.28%EV -10.78%E -4.53%K -7.81%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 38.94%EV -6.89%E -2.94%K -5.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -9.12%E -2.28%K -3.04%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-02 15:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%5.3%2026-10-02 15:25
NordicBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%5.3%2026-10-02 15:25
Pinnacle🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.73%1.86I 53.76%NM 50.27%7.0%2026-10-02 16:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%7.5%2026-10-01 08:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%7.5%2026-10-01 08:34
Neds🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%7.5%2026-10-01 08:35
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%7.5%2026-10-01 08:34
Smarkets◎1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%8.2%2026-10-02 15:35