The School of Odds
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Västerås IK v IF Troja-Ljungby

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Västerås IK (Local)

Prediction 55.17%1.81fair odd
EV -3.46%
Edge -1.98%
Kelly -4.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.23%55.44%55.17%57.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.671.681.7563.29%59.93%59.52%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

IF Troja-Ljungby (Visit)

Prediction 23.46%4.26fair odd
EV +1.37%
Edge +0.317%
Kelly +0.412%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 4.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.18%23.04%23.46%24.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.024.004.3226.67%24.86%25.00%23.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.37%4.68fair odd
EV -5.98%
Edge -1.36%
Kelly -1.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.17%21.52%21.37%22.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.254.364.404.4023.53%22.95%22.73%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Västerås IK (Local): 55.17%; IF Troja-Ljungby (Visit): 23.46%; Draw: 21.37%. For IF Troja-Ljungby (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.26. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.32, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.37%.

6 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.39%EV -11.73%E -7.33%K -19.55%G +0.000%4.32I 23.15%NM 21.26%EV +1.37%E +0.317%K +0.412%G +0.006%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.35%EV -8.12%E -1.89%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-21 16:39
Marathon Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.64%EV -12.84%E -8.12%K -22.13%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.18%EV +0.899%E +0.209%K +0.272%G +0.002%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.18%EV -8.12%E -1.89%K -2.46%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-21 16:34
Coolbet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.23%EV -3.46%E -1.98%K -4.61%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.43%EV -4.97%E -1.23%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.33%EV -9.19%E -2.16%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-21 10:40
Unibet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.50%EV -7.32%E -4.36%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -6.14%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -5.98%E -1.36%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 08:54
LeoVegas🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.50%EV -7.32%E -4.36%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -6.14%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -5.98%E -1.36%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 08:55
Grosvenor🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.50%EV -7.32%E -4.36%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -6.14%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -5.98%E -1.36%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 08:54
Unibet (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.50%EV -7.32%E -4.36%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -6.14%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -5.98%E -1.36%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 08:54
Unibet (NL)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.50%EV -7.32%E -4.36%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -6.14%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -5.98%E -1.36%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 08:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.50%EV -7.32%E -4.36%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -6.14%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -5.98%E -1.36%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 08:54
Svenska Spel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.50%EV -7.32%E -4.36%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -6.14%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -5.98%E -1.36%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 09:24
ATG (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.50%EV -7.32%E -4.36%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -6.14%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -5.98%E -1.36%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 09:24
Unibet (UK)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.50%EV -7.32%E -4.36%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -6.14%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -5.98%E -1.36%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 10:04
TABtouch🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.50%EV -9.53%E -5.81%K -14.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.34%EV -8.49%E -2.18%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.17%EV -8.12%E -1.89%K -2.46%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-21 08:55
Betway🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.40%EV -7.87%E -4.71%K -11.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.23%EV -12.01%E -3.20%K -4.37%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.38%EV -9.19%E -2.16%K -2.83%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-20 22:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (6)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.51%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.49%5.1%2026-03-21 15:00
NordicBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.51%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.49%5.1%2026-03-21 14:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%7.1%2026-03-20 12:00
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%7.1%2026-03-20 11:58
Pinnacle🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.61%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.39%8.0%2026-03-21 12:00
Smarkets◎1.40I 71.43%NM 66.02%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.98%8.2%2026-03-21 09:25