The School of Odds
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Västerås IK v IF Troja-Ljungby

Kickoff: 2026-03-12 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Västerås IK (Local)

Prediction 52.36%1.91fair odd
EV -3.14%
Edge -1.70%
Kelly -3.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.25%52.58%52.36%53.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.691.791.811.8559.17%56.02%55.25%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

IF Troja-Ljungby (Visit)

Prediction 25.38%3.94fair odd
EV -2.02%
Edge -0.523%
Kelly -0.706%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.76%25.17%25.38%26.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.633.603.8628.57%27.56%27.78%25.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.26%4.49fair odd
EV -5.40%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -1.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.04%22.26%22.26%22.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.164.204.2525.00%24.05%23.81%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Västerås IK (Local): 52.36%; IF Troja-Ljungby (Visit): 25.38%; Draw: 22.26%. For IF Troja-Ljungby (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.94. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.86, with an expected value of -2.02%; they did not produce positive expected value.

4 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.49%EV -3.14%E -1.70%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.10%EV -7.35%E -2.01%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.41%EV -5.40%E -1.27%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-12 13:40
Unibet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.71%EV -5.23%E -2.89%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -8.62%E -2.39%K -3.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.29%EV -6.51%E -1.55%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-12 11:59
Unibet (NL)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.71%EV -5.23%E -2.89%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -8.62%E -2.39%K -3.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.29%EV -6.51%E -1.55%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-12 12:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.71%EV -5.23%E -2.89%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -8.62%E -2.39%K -3.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.29%EV -6.51%E -1.55%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-12 12:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.71%EV -5.23%E -2.89%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -8.62%E -2.39%K -3.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.29%EV -6.51%E -1.55%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-12 12:01
Grosvenor🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.71%EV -5.23%E -2.89%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -8.62%E -2.39%K -3.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.29%EV -6.51%E -1.55%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-12 12:01
ATG (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.71%EV -5.23%E -2.89%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -8.62%E -2.39%K -3.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.29%EV -6.51%E -1.55%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-12 12:01
Svenska Spel🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.71%EV -5.23%E -2.89%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -8.62%E -2.39%K -3.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.29%EV -6.51%E -1.55%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-12 12:00
LeoVegas🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.25%EV -5.23%E -2.89%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.13%EV -9.89%E -2.79%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.62%EV -8.74%E -2.13%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-12 12:01
Unibet (UK)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.63%EV -6.80%E -3.82%K -8.72%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -6.08%E -1.64%K -2.25%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.04%EV -5.40%E -1.27%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-12 12:15
TABtouch🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.33%EV -7.33%E -4.14%K -9.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -11.16%E -3.19%K -4.46%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.71%EV -10.96%E -2.74%K -3.65%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-12 12:00
1xBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.76%EV -10.47%E -6.12%K -14.74%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 23.82%EV -2.02%E -0.523%K -0.706%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.42%EV -8.74%E -2.13%K -2.82%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-12 13:40
Betway🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.19%EV -10.47%E -6.12%K -14.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -11.16%E -3.19%K -4.46%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.31%EV -10.96%E -2.74%K -3.65%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-12 12:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 53.99%EV -11.52%E -6.81%K -16.69%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 23.76%EV -2.53%E -0.658%K -0.890%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.25%EV -8.74%E -2.13%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-12 13:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (4)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.58%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.42%5.3%2026-03-12 13:40
NordicBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.58%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.42%5.3%2026-03-12 13:40
Smarkets◎1.45I 68.97%NM 64.02%2.58I 38.76%NM 35.98%7.7%2026-03-12 12:15
Pinnacle🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.78%2.71I 36.90%NM 34.22%7.8%2026-03-12 13:41