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Västerås IK v AIK

Kickoff: 2026-02-21 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Västerås IK (Local)

Prediction 36.44%2.74fair odd
EV -5.25%
Edge -2.02%
Kelly -3.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.00%36.39%36.48%36.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.472.542.552.6040.49%39.43%39.22%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AIK (Visit)

Prediction 40.08%2.50fair odd
EV -5.82%
Edge -2.48%
Kelly -4.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.97%40.14%40.11%41.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.262.252.3545.45%44.21%44.44%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.48%4.26fair odd
EV -1.39%
Edge -0.330%
Kelly -0.433%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.15%23.47%23.41%24.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.074.204.2026.67%24.58%23.81%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Västerås IK (Local): 36.44%; AIK (Visit): 40.08%; Draw: 23.48%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.26. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.20, with an expected value of -1.39%; they did not produce positive expected value.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.25%E -2.02%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.48%EV -5.82%E -2.48%K -4.31%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.92%EV -2.56%E -0.617%K -0.813%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-20 05:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.60%EV -7.07%E -2.77%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.06%EV -6.62%E -2.84%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -6.08%E -1.52%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-20 17:06
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.49%EV -7.07%E -2.77%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.36%EV -9.82%E -4.37%K -7.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -1.39%E -0.330%K -0.433%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-20 05:41
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.49%EV -7.07%E -2.77%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.36%EV -9.82%E -4.37%K -7.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -1.39%E -0.330%K -0.433%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-20 05:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.49%EV -7.07%E -2.77%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.36%EV -9.82%E -4.37%K -7.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -1.39%E -0.330%K -0.433%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-20 05:40
LeoVegas🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.49%EV -7.07%E -2.77%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.36%EV -9.82%E -4.37%K -7.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -1.39%E -0.330%K -0.433%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-20 05:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.49%EV -7.07%E -2.77%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.36%EV -9.82%E -4.37%K -7.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -1.39%E -0.330%K -0.433%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-20 05:40
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.49%EV -7.07%E -2.77%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.36%EV -9.82%E -4.37%K -7.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -1.39%E -0.330%K -0.433%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-20 05:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.49%EV -7.07%E -2.77%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.36%EV -9.82%E -4.37%K -7.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -1.39%E -0.330%K -0.433%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-20 05:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.49%EV -7.07%E -2.77%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.36%EV -9.82%E -4.37%K -7.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -1.39%E -0.330%K -0.433%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-20 05:40
1xBet🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 36.30%EV -8.53%E -3.40%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.97%EV -8.62%E -3.78%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 23.73%EV -9.84%E -2.56%K -3.46%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-21 16:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 36.30%EV -8.53%E -3.40%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.97%EV -8.62%E -3.78%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 23.73%EV -9.84%E -2.56%K -3.46%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-21 16:45
TABtouch🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.21%EV -8.89%E -3.56%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.15%EV -11.83%E -5.38%K -9.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.63%EV -6.08%E -1.52%K -2.03%G +0.000%10.5%2026-02-20 05:40
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.00%EV -8.89%E -3.56%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -9.82%E -4.37%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.00%EV -11.95%E -3.19%K -4.35%G +0.000%11.1%2026-02-20 14:26
Codere (IT)🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 36.44%EV -9.99%E -4.04%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 40.18%EV -10.23%E -4.56%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.38%EV -9.60%E -2.49%K -3.37%G +0.000%11.1%2026-02-20 14:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%5.4%2026-02-20 14:25
NordicBet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%5.4%2026-02-20 14:25
Bovada🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%6.8%2026-02-20 05:41
Pinnacle🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.87%7.1%2026-02-20 05:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%7.9%2026-02-20 18:26
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%7.9%2026-02-20 18:30
Neds🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%7.9%2026-02-20 18:55
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%7.9%2026-02-20 19:20
Smarkets◎1.92I 52.08%NM 48.11%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.89%8.3%2026-02-21 15:05