The School of Odds
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Södertälje SK v Östersunds IK

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 13:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Södertälje SK (Local)

Prediction 54.06%1.85fair odd
EV -6.47%
Edge -3.74%
Kelly -8.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.09%54.38%54.08%56.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.631.681.671.7361.35%59.55%59.88%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Östersunds IK (Visit)

Prediction 24.01%4.17fair odd
EV +4.44%
Edge +1.02%
Kelly +1.32%
Growth +0.059%

assuming max odds 4.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.90%23.65%23.99%24.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.074.204.3527.03%24.55%23.81%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.93%4.56fair odd
EV -2.42%
Edge -0.543%
Kelly -0.700%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.41%21.97%21.93%22.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.214.254.4525.00%23.74%23.53%22.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Södertälje SK (Local): 54.06%; Östersunds IK (Visit): 24.01%; Draw: 21.93%. For Östersunds IK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.17. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.44%.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -9.17%E -5.46%K -13.49%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV +4.44%E +1.02%K +1.32%G +0.059%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.41%EV -2.42%E -0.543%K -0.700%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-27 23:19
Unibet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.99%EV -9.72%E -5.82%K -14.50%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV +2.04%E +0.479%K +0.626%G +0.013%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -6.80%E -1.60%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-01 11:29
Unibet (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.99%EV -9.72%E -5.82%K -14.50%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV +2.04%E +0.479%K +0.626%G +0.013%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -6.80%E -1.60%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-01 11:29
Unibet (NL)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.99%EV -9.72%E -5.82%K -14.50%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV +2.04%E +0.479%K +0.626%G +0.013%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -6.80%E -1.60%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-01 11:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.99%EV -9.72%E -5.82%K -14.50%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV +2.04%E +0.479%K +0.626%G +0.013%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -6.80%E -1.60%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-01 11:29
Grosvenor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.99%EV -9.72%E -5.82%K -14.50%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV +2.04%E +0.479%K +0.626%G +0.013%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -6.80%E -1.60%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-01 11:30
LeoVegas🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.85%EV -9.72%E -5.82%K -14.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.21%EV +0.835%E +0.199%K +0.261%G +0.002%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.95%EV -6.80%E -1.60%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-01 11:30
TABtouch🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.71%EV -11.88%E -7.29%K -18.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -1.57%E -0.382%K -0.505%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -10.09%E -2.46%K -3.26%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-01 11:29
Unibet (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.17%EV -6.47%E -3.74%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -6.37%E -1.63%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV -5.71%E -1.33%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-01 11:19
1xBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -8.09%E -4.76%K -11.56%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 23.81%EV -7.33%E -1.90%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.14%EV -8.99%E -2.17%K -2.86%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-28 06:44
Marathon Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.28%EV -9.17%E -5.46%K -13.49%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 23.75%EV -7.81%E -2.03%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.97%EV -8.99%E -2.17%K -2.86%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-28 06:38
Betway🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.09%EV -7.55%E -4.42%K -10.64%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -9.97%E -2.66%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -12.28%E -3.07%K -4.09%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-01 11:19
Codere (IT)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.65%EV -9.17%E -5.46%K -13.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.36%EV -11.17%E -3.02%K -4.14%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.98%EV -10.09%E -2.46%K -3.26%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-01 11:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%5.1%2026-03-01 11:19
NordicBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%5.1%2026-03-01 11:19
Bovada🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%6.1%2026-03-01 11:35
Pinnacle🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.78%2.71I 36.90%NM 34.22%7.8%2026-02-27 23:49
Smarkets◎1.42I 70.42%NM 65.02%2.64I 37.88%NM 34.98%8.3%2026-03-01 11:19
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%8.5%2026-02-28 17:25
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%8.5%2026-02-28 17:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%8.5%2026-02-28 17:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%8.5%2026-02-28 17:25