The School of Odds
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Södertälje SK v Mora IK

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 14:30 UTC

Final: Södertälje SK 3–1 Mora IK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Södertälje SK (Local)

Prediction 48.18%2.08fair odd
EV -7.50%
Edge -3.91%
Kelly -8.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.83%48.55%48.18%52.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.851.851.9257.14%54.05%54.05%52.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mora IK (Visit)

Prediction 29.45%3.40fair odd
EV +11.91%
Edge +3.13%
Kelly +4.25%
Growth +0.507%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.27%29.10%29.45%29.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.523.703.8033.33%28.43%27.03%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.37%4.47fair odd
EV -4.91%
Edge -1.15%
Kelly -1.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.12%22.35%22.37%22.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.164.204.2525.00%24.03%23.81%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Södertälje SK (Local): 48.18%; Mora IK (Visit): 29.45%; Draw: 22.37%. For Mora IK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.40. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.91%.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.03%EV -10.88%E -5.88%K -12.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.33%EV +11.91%E +3.13%K +4.25%G +0.507%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.65%EV -4.91%E -1.15%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-11 13:14
Unibet (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.03%EV -10.88%E -5.88%K -12.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.33%EV +11.91%E +3.13%K +4.25%G +0.507%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.65%EV -4.91%E -1.15%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-11 13:14
Svenska Spel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.03%EV -10.88%E -5.88%K -12.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.33%EV +11.91%E +3.13%K +4.25%G +0.507%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.65%EV -4.91%E -1.15%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-11 13:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.03%EV -10.88%E -5.88%K -12.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.33%EV +11.91%E +3.13%K +4.25%G +0.507%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.65%EV -4.91%E -1.15%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-11 13:14
Unibet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.08%EV -12.80%E -7.07%K -15.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV +8.97%E +2.42%K +3.32%G +0.298%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%EV -6.03%E -1.43%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-11 13:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.08%EV -12.80%E -7.07%K -15.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV +8.97%E +2.42%K +3.32%G +0.298%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%EV -6.03%E -1.43%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-11 13:15
Grosvenor🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.08%EV -12.80%E -7.07%K -15.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV +8.97%E +2.42%K +3.32%G +0.298%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%EV -6.03%E -1.43%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-11 13:14
TABtouch🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.99%EV -15.69%E -8.97%K -20.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV +6.02%E +1.67%K +2.32%G +0.139%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -10.50%E -2.63%K -3.50%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-11 13:15
Coolbet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.92%EV -7.99%E -4.18%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.64%EV +1.60%E +0.465%K +0.654%G +0.010%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.44%EV -4.91%E -1.15%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-11 09:30
1xBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.34%EV -8.47%E -4.46%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 28.98%EV -6.64%E -2.10%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.68%EV -9.38%E -2.32%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-11 14:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.39%EV -7.50%E -3.91%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.49%EV -7.23%E -2.30%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -6.03%E -1.43%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-11 14:29
Codere (IT)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.06%EV -9.91%E -5.30%K -11.39%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.47%EV -10.18%E -3.34%K -4.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.47%EV -10.50%E -2.63%K -3.50%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-11 14:29
Betway🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 47.83%EV -9.91%E -5.30%K -11.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.81%EV -11.65%E -3.88%K -5.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -10.50%E -2.63%K -3.50%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-11 14:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%5.2%2026-10-11 14:29
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%5.2%2026-10-11 14:29
Pinnacle🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.96%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.04%7.3%2026-10-11 14:20
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-10-11 14:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-10-11 14:25
Neds🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-10-11 14:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-10-11 14:24
Smarkets◎1.52I 65.79%NM 60.82%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.18%8.2%2026-10-11 14:25