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Södertälje SK v Mora IK

Kickoff: 2026-03-11 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Södertälje SK (Local)

Prediction 49.21%2.03fair odd
EV -5.03%
Edge -2.61%
Kelly -5.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.38%49.23%49.21%49.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.841.911.921.9354.35%52.43%51.95%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mora IK (Visit)

Prediction 27.87%3.59fair odd
EV -1.06%
Edge -0.297%
Kelly -0.414%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.77%27.75%27.87%28.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.343.353.5531.25%29.93%29.85%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.92%4.36fair odd
EV -6.02%
Edge -1.47%
Kelly -1.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.78%23.02%22.92%23.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.853.963.954.1025.97%25.25%25.32%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Södertälje SK (Local): 49.21%; Mora IK (Visit): 27.87%; Draw: 22.92%. For Mora IK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.59. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.55, with an expected value of -1.06%; they did not produce positive expected value.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -5.03%E -2.61%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -6.63%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.66%EV -9.46%E -2.39%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-11 16:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -5.03%E -2.61%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -6.63%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.66%EV -9.46%E -2.39%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-11 16:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -5.03%E -2.61%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -6.63%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.66%EV -9.46%E -2.39%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-11 16:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -5.03%E -2.61%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -6.63%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.66%EV -9.46%E -2.39%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-11 16:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -5.03%E -2.61%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -6.63%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.66%EV -9.46%E -2.39%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-11 16:35
Grosvenor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -5.03%E -2.61%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -6.63%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.66%EV -9.46%E -2.39%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-11 16:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -5.03%E -2.61%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -6.63%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.66%EV -9.46%E -2.39%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-11 16:35
LeoVegas🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.42%EV -5.52%E -2.88%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -6.63%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -10.60%E -2.72%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-11 16:35
Coolbet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.76%EV -6.02%E -3.15%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.77%EV -1.06%E -0.297%K -0.414%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.47%EV -7.17%E -1.77%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-11 16:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.91%EV -6.02%E -3.15%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -8.02%E -2.43%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -6.02%E -1.47%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-11 13:46
TABtouch🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.38%EV -7.49%E -3.99%K -8.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.99%EV -9.42%E -2.90%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.63%EV -11.75%E -3.05%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-11 16:34
Betway🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.74%EV -7.98%E -4.27%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -10.81%E -3.38%K -4.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -8.31%E -2.08%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-11 13:45
1xBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 49.36%EV -8.48%E -4.56%K -9.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV -6.63%E -1.98%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.24%EV -9.46%E -2.39%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-11 17:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.50%EV -9.46%E -5.14%K -11.26%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 27.44%EV -7.47%E -2.25%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.06%EV -9.46%E -2.39%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-11 17:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%5.8%2026-03-11 17:50
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%5.8%2026-03-11 17:50
Smarkets◎1.53I 65.36%NM 61.46%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.54%6.3%2026-03-11 13:45
Pinnacle🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.15%2.34I 42.74%NM 39.85%7.3%2026-03-11 17:50
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%7.5%2026-03-10 22:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%7.5%2026-03-10 22:49
Neds🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%7.5%2026-03-10 22:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%7.5%2026-03-10 22:49