Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Södertälje SK v IK Oskarshamn

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 16:00 UTC

Final: Södertälje SK 3–4 IK Oskarshamn

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Södertälje SK (Local)

Prediction 59.41%1.68fair odd
EV -6.73%
Edge -4.28%
Kelly -11.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.35%59.71%59.16%63.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.511.511.5769.93%66.10%66.23%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

IK Oskarshamn (Visit)

Prediction 20.49%4.88fair odd
EV +6.56%
Edge +1.26%
Kelly +1.56%
Growth +0.103%

assuming max odds 5.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.28%20.22%20.64%21.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.254.835.005.2023.53%20.70%20.00%19.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.10%4.98fair odd
EV +6.51%
Edge +1.23%
Kelly +1.51%
Growth +0.099%

assuming max odds 5.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.77%20.07%20.19%20.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.975.175.3022.73%20.11%19.32%18.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Södertälje SK (Local): 59.41%; IK Oskarshamn (Visit): 20.49%; Draw: 20.10%. For IK Oskarshamn (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.88. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.56%.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.12%EV -9.10%E -5.95%K -17.17%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.28%EV +6.56%E +1.26%K +1.56%G +0.103%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.60%EV -2.53%E -0.522%K -0.657%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-26 08:24
Unibet (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.25%EV -10.29%E -6.81%K -20.18%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.73%EV +4.51%E +0.885%K +1.10%G +0.050%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.02%EV +6.51%E +1.23%K +1.51%G +0.099%4.7%2026-09-26 08:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.25%EV -10.29%E -6.81%K -20.18%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.73%EV +4.51%E +0.885%K +1.10%G +0.050%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.02%EV +6.51%E +1.23%K +1.51%G +0.099%4.7%2026-09-26 08:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.25%EV -10.29%E -6.81%K -20.18%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.73%EV +4.51%E +0.885%K +1.10%G +0.050%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.02%EV +6.51%E +1.23%K +1.51%G +0.099%4.7%2026-09-26 07:59
ATG (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.25%EV -10.29%E -6.81%K -20.18%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.73%EV +4.51%E +0.885%K +1.10%G +0.050%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.02%EV +6.51%E +1.23%K +1.51%G +0.099%4.7%2026-09-26 08:00
Unibet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.22%EV -11.48%E -7.70%K -23.43%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.84%EV +2.46%E +0.493%K +0.616%G +0.015%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.94%EV +5.51%E +1.05%K +1.30%G +0.071%6.2%2026-09-26 08:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.22%EV -11.48%E -7.70%K -23.43%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.84%EV +2.46%E +0.493%K +0.616%G +0.015%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.94%EV +5.51%E +1.05%K +1.30%G +0.071%6.2%2026-09-26 08:00
Grosvenor🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.22%EV -11.48%E -7.70%K -23.43%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.84%EV +2.46%E +0.493%K +0.616%G +0.015%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.94%EV +5.51%E +1.05%K +1.30%G +0.071%6.2%2026-09-26 08:00
TABtouch🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.36%EV -15.04%E -10.52%K -34.98%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.88%EV -1.63%E -0.341%K -0.430%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.77%EV +2.49%E +0.489%K +0.608%G +0.015%10.4%2026-09-26 08:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.37%EV -10.29%E -6.81%K -20.18%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.82%EV -5.73%E -1.25%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.82%EV -7.55%E -1.64%K -2.10%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-26 12:00
1xBet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.03%EV -9.10%E -5.95%K -17.17%G +0.000%4.59I 21.79%NM 20.01%EV -5.94%E -1.29%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.97%EV -7.55%E -1.64%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-26 12:08
Unibet (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.16%EV -6.73%E -4.28%K -11.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.64%EV -7.78%E -1.73%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -7.55%E -1.64%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-26 09:54
Codere (IT)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.54%EV -8.51%E -5.52%K -15.76%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.97%EV -11.88%E -2.76%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.49%EV -11.57%E -2.63%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-26 09:59
Betway🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.35%EV -7.32%E -4.69%K -13.07%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.42%EV -12.91%E -3.04%K -3.97%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -9.56%E -2.13%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-26 09:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.30%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.70%5.6%2026-09-26 12:04
Betsson🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.30%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.70%5.6%2026-09-26 12:05
Pinnacle🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.91%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.09%8.3%2026-09-26 12:01
Smarkets◎1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%8.5%2026-09-26 09:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%8.6%2026-09-25 20:30
Neds🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%8.6%2026-09-25 20:30
Coral🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%8.6%2026-09-25 20:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%8.6%2026-09-25 20:30