The School of Odds
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Södertälje SK v BIK Karlskoga

Kickoff: 2026-03-06 18:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Södertälje SK (Local)

Prediction 49.16%2.03fair odd
EV -6.10%
Edge -3.19%
Kelly -6.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.74%49.17%49.24%49.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.871.881.9154.64%53.44%53.19%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

BIK Karlskoga (Visit)

Prediction 28.71%3.48fair odd
EV -2.95%
Edge -0.872%
Kelly -1.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.18%28.60%28.78%29.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.243.253.3832.26%30.91%30.77%29.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.12%4.52fair odd
EV -3.76%
Edge -0.864%
Kelly -1.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.47%22.22%21.98%23.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.924.244.354.3525.51%23.61%22.99%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Södertälje SK (Local): 49.16%; BIK Karlskoga (Visit): 28.71%; Draw: 22.12%. For BIK Karlskoga (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.48. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.38, with an expected value of -2.95%; they did not produce positive expected value.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.89%EV -6.10%E -3.19%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -9.55%E -3.03%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.47%EV -3.76%E -0.864%K -1.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-06 17:59
Unibet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.60%EV -7.08%E -3.75%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -6.68%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.55%EV -3.76%E -0.864%K -1.12%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-06 18:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.74%EV -7.57%E -4.03%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.68%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.49%EV -3.76%E -0.864%K -1.12%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-06 18:00
Grosvenor🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.74%EV -7.57%E -4.03%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.68%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.49%EV -3.76%E -0.864%K -1.12%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-06 18:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.74%EV -7.57%E -4.03%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.68%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.49%EV -3.76%E -0.864%K -1.12%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-06 18:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.74%EV -7.57%E -4.03%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.68%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.49%EV -3.76%E -0.864%K -1.12%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-06 18:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.74%EV -7.57%E -4.03%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.68%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.49%EV -3.76%E -0.864%K -1.12%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-06 18:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.74%EV -7.57%E -4.03%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.68%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.49%EV -3.76%E -0.864%K -1.12%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-06 18:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.61%EV -7.57%E -4.03%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -6.68%E -2.06%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -4.87%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-06 18:00
LeoVegas🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.39%EV -7.57%E -4.03%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.02%EV -8.12%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.59%EV -4.87%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-06 18:00
Betway🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.74%EV -8.07%E -4.31%K -9.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -8.12%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -11.50%E -2.88%K -3.83%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-06 17:59
1xBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 49.39%EV -8.56%E -4.60%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.18%EV -2.95%E -0.872%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.43%EV -13.27%E -3.39%K -4.55%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-06 17:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.54%EV -9.54%E -5.19%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -3.81%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.25%EV -13.27%E -3.39%K -4.55%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-06 17:59
TABtouch🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.59%EV -10.03%E -5.48%K -12.09%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -9.55%E -3.03%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.61%EV -7.08%E -1.69%K -2.21%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-06 18:00
Codere (IT)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.10%EV -10.03%E -5.48%K -12.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -10.99%E -3.54%K -5.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.92%EV -9.29%E -2.27%K -3.00%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-06 18:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%5.3%2026-03-06 18:00
NordicBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%5.3%2026-03-06 18:00
Bovada🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%6.5%2026-03-06 18:00
Pinnacle🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%7.6%2026-03-06 17:59
Smarkets◎1.53I 65.36%NM 60.26%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.74%8.5%2026-03-06 18:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%8.8%2026-03-06 18:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%8.8%2026-03-06 17:59
Neds🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%8.8%2026-03-06 17:59
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%8.8%2026-03-06 17:59