The School of Odds
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Södertälje SK v AIK

Kickoff: 2026-09-25 16:01 UTC

Final: Södertälje SK 4–5 AIK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Södertälje SK (Local)

Prediction 43.29%2.31fair odd
EV -1.74%
Edge -0.767%
Kelly -1.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.99%43.26%43.26%44.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.172.202.2748.78%46.01%45.45%44.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AIK (Visit)

Prediction 33.97%2.94fair odd
EV -4.53%
Edge -1.61%
Kelly -2.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.67%33.98%33.96%35.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.742.752.8137.74%36.45%36.36%35.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.74%4.40fair odd
EV -4.49%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -1.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.42%22.75%22.78%23.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.084.104.2025.32%24.49%24.39%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Södertälje SK (Local): 43.29%; AIK (Visit): 33.97%; Draw: 22.74%. For Södertälje SK (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.31. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.27, with an expected value of -1.74%; they did not produce positive expected value.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.99%EV -1.74%E -0.767%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.04%EV -7.59%E -2.79%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.97%EV -5.63%E -1.36%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-25 15:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -2.61%E -1.16%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.35%EV -4.87%E -1.74%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.90%EV -4.49%E -1.07%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-25 15:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -2.61%E -1.16%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.35%EV -4.87%E -1.74%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.90%EV -4.49%E -1.07%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-25 15:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -2.61%E -1.16%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.35%EV -4.87%E -1.74%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.90%EV -4.49%E -1.07%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-25 15:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -2.61%E -1.16%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.35%EV -4.87%E -1.74%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.90%EV -4.49%E -1.07%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-25 15:25
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.80%EV -4.77%E -2.17%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24%EV -6.57%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -6.77%E -1.65%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-25 15:25
Grosvenor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.80%EV -4.77%E -2.17%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24%EV -6.57%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -6.77%E -1.65%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-25 15:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.80%EV -4.77%E -2.17%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24%EV -6.57%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -6.77%E -1.65%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-25 15:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.09%EV -6.94%E -3.23%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.31%EV -8.27%E -3.06%K -4.86%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV -6.77%E -1.65%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-25 16:00
TABtouch🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.57%EV -7.37%E -3.44%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.37%EV -9.97%E -3.76%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.06%EV -10.18%E -2.58%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-25 15:25
1xBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.14%EV -9.97%E -4.79%K -9.23%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 32.67%EV -4.53%E -1.61%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 23.19%EV -9.95%E -2.51%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-25 15:19
Codere (IT)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.26%EV -9.97%E -4.79%K -9.23%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.96%EV -9.97%E -3.76%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.78%EV -10.18%E -2.58%K -3.45%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-25 15:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.22%EV -10.83%E -5.26%K -10.22%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 32.77%EV -5.55%E -2.00%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 23.01%EV -9.95%E -2.51%K -3.36%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-25 15:10
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -11.26%E -5.49%K -10.73%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.84%EV -9.97%E -3.76%K -6.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.42%EV -9.04%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-25 16:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%5.3%2026-09-25 15:55
NordicBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%5.3%2026-09-25 15:55
Pinnacle🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.69%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.31%6.9%2026-09-25 15:05
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%7.6%2026-09-24 12:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%7.6%2026-09-24 12:44
Neds🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%7.6%2026-09-24 12:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%7.6%2026-09-24 12:44
Smarkets◎1.68I 59.52%NM 55.08%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.92%8.1%2026-09-25 15:10