The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Östersunds IK v Mora IK

Kickoff: 2026-09-18 17:00 UTC

Final: Östersunds IK 5–4 Mora IK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Östersunds IK (Local)

Prediction 38.67%2.59fair odd
EV -4.10%
Edge -1.65%
Kelly -2.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.28%38.68%38.72%38.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.412.432.4843.48%41.42%41.15%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mora IK (Visit)

Prediction 37.96%2.63fair odd
EV -3.21%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -2.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.27%38.03%37.93%38.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.372.472.482.5542.19%40.49%40.40%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.37%4.28fair odd
EV -0.665%
Edge -0.157%
Kelly -0.205%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.37%23.29%23.35%23.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.753.994.004.2526.67%25.08%25.00%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Östersunds IK (Local): 38.67%; Mora IK (Visit): 37.96%; Draw: 23.37%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.28. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.25, with an expected value of -0.665%; they did not produce positive expected value.

6 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.80%EV -4.10%E -1.65%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.73%EV -3.21%E -1.26%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.47%EV -4.17%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-17 20:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.80%EV -4.10%E -1.65%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.73%EV -3.21%E -1.26%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.47%EV -4.17%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-17 20:59
Svenska Spel🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.80%EV -4.10%E -1.65%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.73%EV -3.21%E -1.26%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.47%EV -4.17%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-17 20:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.80%EV -4.10%E -1.65%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.73%EV -3.21%E -1.26%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.47%EV -4.17%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-17 20:55
Coolbet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.81%EV -5.26%E -2.15%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.81%EV -7.00%E -2.86%K -4.83%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.37%EV -0.665%E -0.157%K -0.205%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-16 18:14
Unibet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.77%EV -6.03%E -2.48%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.68%EV -5.10%E -2.04%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -6.51%E -1.63%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-17 20:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.77%EV -6.03%E -2.48%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.68%EV -5.10%E -2.04%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -6.51%E -1.63%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-17 20:55
Grosvenor🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.77%EV -6.03%E -2.48%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.68%EV -5.10%E -2.04%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -6.51%E -1.63%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-17 20:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.77%EV -7.19%E -3.00%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.00%E -2.86%K -4.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -6.51%E -1.63%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-17 17:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.28%EV -7.97%E -3.35%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 38.12%EV -9.28%E -3.88%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 23.60%EV -9.78%E -2.53%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-18 05:24
1xBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.28%EV -7.97%E -3.35%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 38.12%EV -9.28%E -3.88%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 23.60%EV -9.78%E -2.53%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-18 05:23
TABtouch🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.80%EV -9.13%E -3.88%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.52%EV -7.76%E -3.19%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.68%EV -10.01%E -2.60%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-17 21:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.64%EV -9.90%E -4.25%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.98%EV -10.04%E -4.24%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.38%EV -10.01%E -2.60%K -3.51%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-16 20:45
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.89%EV -11.06%E -4.81%K -8.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.27%EV -8.90%E -3.71%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.85%EV -12.35%E -3.29%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-17 10:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (6)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%5.3%2026-09-18 11:10
NordicBet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%5.3%2026-09-18 11:10
Pinnacle🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%7.0%2026-09-17 00:31
Smarkets◎1.84I 54.35%NM 50.40%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.60%7.8%2026-09-18 05:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%7.9%2026-09-15 18:40
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%7.9%2026-09-15 19:15