The School of Odds
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Östersunds IK v Leksands IF

Kickoff: 2026-10-16 17:00 UTC

Final: Östersunds IK 3–2 Leksands IF

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Östersunds IK (Local)

Prediction 19.02%5.26fair odd
EV +4.61%
Edge +0.839%
Kelly +1.03%
Growth +0.047%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.31%19.40%19.11%21.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.155.095.355.5024.10%19.63%18.69%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Leksands IF (Visit)

Prediction 61.46%1.63fair odd
EV -2.89%
Edge -1.83%
Kelly -4.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.03%61.04%61.37%65.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.481.471.5871.43%67.73%68.03%63.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.52%5.12fair odd
EV +7.34%
Edge +1.34%
Kelly +1.63%
Growth +0.120%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.31%19.56%19.52%20.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.095.255.5022.22%19.64%19.05%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Östersunds IK (Local): 19.02%; Leksands IF (Visit): 61.46%; Draw: 19.52%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.12. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.34%.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV +4.61%E +0.839%K +1.03%G +0.047%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -9.65%E -6.56%K -20.53%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV +7.34%E +1.34%K +1.63%G +0.120%4.4%2026-10-16 16:35
Unibet (SE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV +4.61%E +0.839%K +1.03%G +0.047%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -9.65%E -6.56%K -20.53%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV +7.34%E +1.34%K +1.63%G +0.120%4.4%2026-10-16 16:35
Svenska Spel🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV +4.61%E +0.839%K +1.03%G +0.047%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -9.65%E -6.56%K -20.53%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV +7.34%E +1.34%K +1.63%G +0.120%4.4%2026-10-16 16:35
ATG (SE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV +4.61%E +0.839%K +1.03%G +0.047%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -9.65%E -6.56%K -20.53%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV +7.34%E +1.34%K +1.63%G +0.120%4.4%2026-10-16 16:35
Unibet (NL)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV +2.71%E +0.502%K +0.616%G +0.017%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -12.11%E -8.47%K -28.16%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV +5.39%E +0.998%K +1.23%G +0.066%7.0%2026-10-16 16:35
Grosvenor🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV +2.71%E +0.502%K +0.616%G +0.017%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -12.11%E -8.47%K -28.16%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV +5.39%E +0.998%K +1.23%G +0.066%7.0%2026-10-16 16:35
Unibet🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.41%EV +2.71%E +0.502%K +0.616%G +0.017%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.85%EV -10.88%E -7.50%K -24.18%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.74%EV +3.44%E +0.649%K +0.800%G +0.028%6.4%2026-10-16 16:59
TABtouch🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.50%EV -1.09%E -0.210%K -0.260%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.00%EV -13.95%E -9.97%K -34.88%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.50%EV +1.49%E +0.286%K +0.354%G +0.005%9.9%2026-10-16 16:35
Coolbet🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.99%EV +0.809%E +0.153%K +0.188%G +0.002%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.74%EV -6.58%E -4.33%K -12.65%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.27%EV -3.39%E -0.685%K -0.859%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-16 16:35
Unibet (UK)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.23%EV -8.70%E -1.81%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -7.81%E -5.20%K -15.61%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.23%EV -6.32%E -1.32%K -1.66%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-16 16:45
1xBet🎯4.21I 23.75%NM 21.84%EV -19.92%E -4.73%K -6.21%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.18%EV -2.89%E -1.83%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -10.22%E -2.22%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-16 16:40
Codere (IT)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.16%EV -10.60%E -2.26%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 61.26%EV -9.65%E -6.56%K -20.53%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.58%EV -10.22%E -2.22%K -2.84%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-16 16:50
Marathon Bet🎯4.15I 24.10%NM 21.95%EV -21.06%E -5.08%K -6.69%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.03%EV -3.50%E -2.23%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.02%EV -11.20%E -2.46%K -3.15%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-16 16:55
Betway🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 18.68%EV -9.65%E -2.03%K -2.57%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 61.61%EV -11.49%E -7.98%K -26.12%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.71%EV -12.17%E -2.71%K -3.48%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-16 16:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯3.01I 33.22%NM 31.59%1.39I 71.94%NM 68.41%5.2%2026-10-16 16:39
Betsson🎯3.01I 33.22%NM 31.59%1.39I 71.94%NM 68.41%5.2%2026-10-16 16:40
Neds🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%6.9%2026-10-15 20:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%6.9%2026-10-15 20:49
Coral🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%7.5%2026-10-15 20:48
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%7.5%2026-10-15 20:49
Pinnacle🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 32.39%1.37I 72.99%NM 67.61%8.0%2026-10-16 16:40
Smarkets◎3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%8.3%2026-10-16 16:45