The School of Odds
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Östersunds IK v Kalmar HC

Kickoff: 2026-09-30 17:00 UTC

Final: Östersunds IK 5–4 Kalmar HC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Östersunds IK (Local)

Prediction 25.78%3.88fair odd
EV -0.736%
Edge -0.191%
Kelly -0.258%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.90%25.66%25.81%26.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.713.733.8528.99%26.98%26.85%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kalmar HC (Visit)

Prediction 52.94%1.89fair odd
EV -4.71%
Edge -2.62%
Kelly -5.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.55%53.06%52.90%53.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.691.751.751.8059.17%57.19%57.14%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.28%4.70fair odd
EV -4.24%
Edge -0.941%
Kelly -1.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.11%21.27%21.29%21.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.394.404.5023.81%22.80%22.73%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Östersunds IK (Local): 25.78%; Kalmar HC (Visit): 52.94%; Draw: 21.28%. For Östersunds IK (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.88. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.85, with an expected value of -0.736%; they did not produce positive expected value.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.96%EV -0.736%E -0.191%K -0.258%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.69%EV -5.24%E -2.93%K -6.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.35%EV -4.24%E -0.941%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-30 15:25
Unibet (SE)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.96%EV -0.736%E -0.191%K -0.258%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.69%EV -5.24%E -2.93%K -6.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.35%EV -4.24%E -0.941%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-30 15:25
Svenska Spel🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.96%EV -0.736%E -0.191%K -0.258%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.69%EV -5.24%E -2.93%K -6.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.35%EV -4.24%E -0.941%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-30 15:25
ATG (SE)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.96%EV -0.736%E -0.191%K -0.258%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.69%EV -5.24%E -2.93%K -6.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.35%EV -4.24%E -0.941%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-30 15:25
Unibet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -3.31%E -0.884%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.64%EV -7.36%E -4.21%K -9.82%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.33%EV -6.36%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-30 15:25
Grosvenor🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -3.31%E -0.884%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.64%EV -7.36%E -4.21%K -9.82%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.33%EV -6.36%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-30 15:25
Unibet (NL)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -3.31%E -0.884%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.64%EV -7.36%E -4.21%K -9.82%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.33%EV -6.36%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-30 15:25
Coolbet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.73%EV -4.60%E -1.24%K -1.70%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.71%E -2.62%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.39%EV -5.30%E -1.19%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-28 20:34
1xBet🎯3.68I 27.17%NM 24.95%EV -5.12%E -1.39%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.70%EV -9.48%E -5.54%K -13.35%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.35%EV -8.49%E -1.98%K -2.57%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-30 15:27
Marathon Bet🎯3.66I 27.32%NM 24.90%EV -5.63%E -1.54%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 53.91%EV -10.54%E -6.24%K -15.27%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.19%EV -8.49%E -1.98%K -2.57%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-30 15:25
TABtouch🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.03%EV -5.89%E -1.61%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.73%EV -10.01%E -5.89%K -14.30%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.24%EV -8.49%E -1.98%K -2.57%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-30 15:25
Unibet (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -7.18%E -1.99%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.08%EV -7.36%E -4.21%K -9.82%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -6.36%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-29 17:05
Betway🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.84%EV -9.76%E -2.79%K -3.90%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 52.88%EV -9.48%E -5.54%K -13.35%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.28%EV -9.56%E -2.25%K -2.94%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-29 09:15
Codere (IT)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -11.05%E -3.20%K -4.51%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 52.55%EV -9.48%E -5.54%K -13.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.40%EV -10.62%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-28 20:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%5.3%2026-09-28 20:30
Betsson🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%5.3%2026-09-28 20:29
Pinnacle🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%7.9%2026-09-28 20:00
Smarkets◎2.54I 39.37%NM 36.34%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.66%8.3%2026-09-30 05:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%8.5%2026-09-29 16:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%8.5%2026-09-29 16:39
Coral🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%8.5%2026-09-29 16:40
Neds🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%8.5%2026-09-29 16:39