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Östersunds IK v Almtuna IS

Kickoff: 2026-09-23 17:00 UTC

Final: Östersunds IK 2–3 Almtuna IS

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Östersunds IK (Local)

Prediction 45.75%2.19fair odd
EV +0.642%
Edge +0.292%
Kelly +0.535%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.32%45.96%45.94%49.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.852.052.082.2054.05%48.76%48.08%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Almtuna IS (Visit)

Prediction 31.71%3.15fair odd
EV +2.10%
Edge +0.653%
Kelly +0.947%
Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 3.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.28%31.37%31.52%33.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.962.953.2235.71%33.80%33.90%31.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.54%4.44fair odd
EV -5.31%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -1.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.45%22.67%22.54%23.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.094.104.2025.32%24.44%24.39%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Östersunds IK (Local): 45.75%; Almtuna IS (Visit): 31.71%; Draw: 22.54%. For Almtuna IS (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.15. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.22, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.10%.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.23%EV -15.37%E -8.31%K -18.08%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.28%EV +2.10%E +0.653%K +0.947%G +0.020%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.49%EV -8.69%E -2.15%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-23 16:55
1xBet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.84%EV -10.34%E -5.27%K -10.77%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.10%EV -3.29%E -1.08%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.07%EV -10.27%E -2.58%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-23 16:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -3.02%E -1.42%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.96%EV -4.87%E -1.62%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.83%EV -5.31%E -1.26%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-23 16:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -3.02%E -1.42%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.96%EV -4.87%E -1.62%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.83%EV -5.31%E -1.26%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-23 16:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -3.02%E -1.42%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.96%EV -4.87%E -1.62%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.83%EV -5.31%E -1.26%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-23 16:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -3.02%E -1.42%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.96%EV -4.87%E -1.62%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.83%EV -5.31%E -1.26%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-23 16:25
Unibet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.20%EV -4.85%E -2.33%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -6.46%E -2.19%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -7.57%E -1.85%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-23 16:25
Grosvenor🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.20%EV -4.85%E -2.33%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -6.46%E -2.19%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -7.57%E -1.85%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-23 16:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.20%EV -4.85%E -2.33%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -6.46%E -2.19%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -7.57%E -1.85%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-23 16:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.93%EV -7.59%E -3.76%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.45%EV -6.46%E -2.19%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.63%EV -7.57%E -1.85%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-23 16:55
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.32%EV +0.642%E +0.292%K +0.535%G +0.003%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.44%EV -9.63%E -3.38%K -5.21%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.24%EV -7.57%E -1.85%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-23 16:15
TABtouch🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.04%EV -7.59%E -3.76%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.92%EV -9.63%E -3.38%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.03%EV -10.95%E -2.77%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-23 16:25
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.05%EV -10.79%E -5.54%K -11.36%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.51%EV -9.63%E -3.38%K -5.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%EV -9.82%E -2.46%K -3.27%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-23 16:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 45.29%EV -8.96%E -4.50%K -9.05%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.19%EV -11.22%E -4.01%K -6.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.53%EV -9.82%E -2.46%K -3.27%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-23 16:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%5.2%2026-09-23 16:55
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%5.2%2026-09-23 16:55
Pinnacle🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.32%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.68%7.0%2026-09-23 16:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-09-21 14:34
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-09-21 14:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-09-21 14:35
Neds🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-09-21 14:35
Smarkets◎1.61I 62.11%NM 57.52%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.48%8.0%2026-09-23 16:55