The School of Odds
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Östersunds IK v AIK

Kickoff: 2026-10-21 17:00 UTC

Final: Östersunds IK 2–1 AIK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Östersunds IK (Local)

Prediction 28.57%3.50fair odd
EV +17.13%
Edge +4.18%
Kelly +5.53%
Growth +0.946%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.38%27.71%28.57%29.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.123.764.004.1032.05%26.58%25.00%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AIK (Visit)

Prediction 49.55%2.02fair odd
EV -7.35%
Edge -3.93%
Kelly -8.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.04%50.43%49.55%54.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.771.751.8760.24%56.47%57.14%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.89%4.57fair odd
EV -3.70%
Edge -0.842%
Kelly -1.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.71%21.86%21.89%22.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.294.304.4024.39%23.32%23.26%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Östersunds IK (Local): 28.57%; AIK (Visit): 49.55%; Draw: 21.89%. For Östersunds IK (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.50. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +17.13%.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.39%EV +17.13%E +4.18%K +5.53%G +0.946%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.81%EV -13.29%E -7.60%K -17.72%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.80%EV -3.70%E -0.842%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-21 16:12
Unibet (SE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.39%EV +17.13%E +4.18%K +5.53%G +0.946%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.81%EV -13.29%E -7.60%K -17.72%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.80%EV -3.70%E -0.842%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-21 16:12
ATG (SE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.39%EV +17.13%E +4.18%K +5.53%G +0.946%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.81%EV -13.29%E -7.60%K -17.72%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.80%EV -3.70%E -0.842%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-21 16:12
Svenska Spel🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.39%EV +17.13%E +4.18%K +5.53%G +0.946%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.81%EV -13.29%E -7.60%K -17.72%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.80%EV -3.70%E -0.842%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-21 16:12
Unibet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV +14.27%E +3.57%K +4.76%G +0.679%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.64%EV -14.78%E -8.59%K -20.53%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -5.89%E -1.37%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-21 16:11
Unibet (NL)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV +14.27%E +3.57%K +4.76%G +0.679%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.64%EV -14.78%E -8.59%K -20.53%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -5.89%E -1.37%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-21 16:12
Grosvenor🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV +14.27%E +3.57%K +4.76%G +0.679%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.64%EV -14.78%E -8.59%K -20.53%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -5.89%E -1.37%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-21 16:12
Coolbet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.46%EV +11.41%E +2.93%K +3.94%G +0.449%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.60%EV -11.81%E -6.63%K -15.14%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.93%EV -4.80%E -1.10%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-21 16:29
TABtouch🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.38%EV +11.41%E +2.93%K +3.94%G +0.449%1.66I 60.24%NM 54.92%EV -17.75%E -10.69%K -26.90%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -8.08%E -1.92%K -2.53%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-21 16:12
Unibet (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.55%EV -7.15%E -2.20%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.62%EV -7.35%E -3.93%K -8.45%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.83%EV -6.99%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-21 16:14
1xBet🎯3.19I 31.35%NM 28.78%EV -8.87%E -2.78%K -4.05%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.10%EV -7.35%E -3.93%K -8.45%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.12%EV -9.18%E -2.21%K -2.91%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-21 16:55
Codere (IT)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.58%EV -10.01%E -3.18%K -4.66%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.46%EV -9.82%E -5.40%K -11.98%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.96%EV -10.27%E -2.50%K -3.31%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-21 16:21
Marathon Bet🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 29.24%EV -10.87%E -3.48%K -5.13%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 49.04%EV -7.84%E -4.22%K -9.12%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.72%EV -8.08%E -1.92%K -2.53%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-21 16:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯2.81I 35.59%NM 33.73%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.27%5.5%2026-10-21 16:50
Betsson🎯2.81I 35.59%NM 33.73%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.27%5.5%2026-10-21 16:50
Pinnacle🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 40.67%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.33%7.4%2026-10-21 16:59
Smarkets◎2.38I 42.02%NM 38.97%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.03%7.8%2026-10-21 16:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.34%8.4%2026-10-21 16:25
Neds🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.34%8.4%2026-10-21 16:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.34%8.4%2026-10-21 16:25
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.34%8.4%2026-10-21 16:25