Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mora IK v Visby/Roma HK

Kickoff: 2026-10-14 17:00 UTC

Final: Mora IK 3–0 Visby/Roma HK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mora IK (Local)

Prediction 64.49%1.55fair odd
EV -6.48%
Edge -4.47%
Kelly -14.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.65%64.78%64.52%66.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.431.431.4572.46%70.14%69.93%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Visby/Roma HK (Visit)

Prediction 16.93%5.91fair odd
EV +6.68%
Edge +1.06%
Kelly +1.26%
Growth +0.084%

assuming max odds 6.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.11%16.64%16.89%17.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.205.605.606.3019.23%17.87%17.86%15.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.57%5.38fair odd
EV +4.01%
Edge +0.716%
Kelly +0.871%
Growth +0.035%

assuming max odds 5.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.14%18.58%18.58%19.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.705.285.405.6021.28%18.93%18.52%17.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mora IK (Local): 64.49%; Visby/Roma HK (Visit): 16.93%; Draw: 18.57%. For Visby/Roma HK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.91. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.68%.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.58%EV -7.77%E -5.44%K -18.08%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 15.11%EV +6.68%E +1.06%K +1.26%G +0.084%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.31%EV -3.42%E -0.658%K -0.814%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-14 15:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.18%EV -6.48%E -4.47%K -14.41%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.69%EV -2.63%E -0.458%K -0.554%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.14%EV +4.01%E +0.716%K +0.871%G +0.035%4.2%2026-10-14 16:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.18%EV -6.48%E -4.47%K -14.41%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.69%EV -2.63%E -0.458%K -0.554%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.14%EV +4.01%E +0.716%K +0.871%G +0.035%4.2%2026-10-14 16:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.18%EV -6.48%E -4.47%K -14.41%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.69%EV -2.63%E -0.458%K -0.554%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.14%EV +4.01%E +0.716%K +0.871%G +0.035%4.2%2026-10-14 16:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.18%EV -6.48%E -4.47%K -14.41%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.69%EV -2.63%E -0.458%K -0.554%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.14%EV +4.01%E +0.716%K +0.871%G +0.035%4.2%2026-10-14 16:00
Unibet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.99%EV -7.77%E -5.44%K -18.08%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.85%EV -5.17%E -0.924%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.16%EV +2.15%E +0.391%K +0.478%G +0.010%6.0%2026-10-14 16:00
Grosvenor🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.99%EV -7.77%E -5.44%K -18.08%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.85%EV -5.17%E -0.924%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.16%EV +2.15%E +0.391%K +0.478%G +0.010%6.0%2026-10-14 16:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.99%EV -7.77%E -5.44%K -18.08%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.85%EV -5.17%E -0.924%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.16%EV +2.15%E +0.391%K +0.478%G +0.010%6.0%2026-10-14 16:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.52%EV -7.13%E -4.95%K -16.20%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.89%EV -6.87%E -1.25%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -7.14%E -1.43%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-14 16:00
1xBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.12%EV -9.06%E -6.43%K -22.11%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.69%EV -6.87%E -1.25%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.18%EV -6.21%E -1.23%K -1.53%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-14 16:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.08%EV -9.71%E -6.94%K -24.27%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.87%EV -8.56%E -1.58%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.04%EV -6.21%E -1.23%K -1.53%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-14 16:00
TABtouch🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.97%EV -11.00%E -7.97%K -28.94%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.86%EV -8.56%E -1.58%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.18%EV -1.56%E -0.295%K -0.364%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-14 16:00
Betway🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.04%EV -9.71%E -6.94%K -24.27%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.08%EV -11.10%E -2.11%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.88%EV -11.78%E -2.48%K -3.14%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-14 16:00
Codere (IT)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 63.65%EV -9.06%E -6.43%K -22.11%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.26%EV -11.95%E -2.30%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.09%EV -12.71%E -2.70%K -3.43%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-14 16:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.14%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.86%5.2%2026-10-14 16:59
NordicBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.14%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.86%5.2%2026-10-14 16:59
Smarkets◎1.26I 79.37%NM 73.80%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%7.5%2026-10-14 16:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%7.8%2026-10-13 20:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%7.8%2026-10-13 20:19
Coral🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%7.8%2026-10-13 20:20
Neds🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%7.8%2026-10-13 20:19
Pinnacle🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.35%3.44I 29.07%NM 26.65%9.1%2026-10-11 21:19