The School of Odds
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Mora IK v Västerås IK

Kickoff: 2026-09-25 17:00 UTC

Final: Mora IK 6–3 Västerås IK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mora IK (Local)

Prediction 50.23%1.99fair odd
EV -5.57%
Edge -2.96%
Kelly -6.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.69%50.27%50.13%53.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.791.791.8858.82%55.82%55.87%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Västerås IK (Visit)

Prediction 27.59%3.62fair odd
EV +10.36%
Edge +2.59%
Kelly +3.45%
Growth +0.358%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.01%27.47%27.69%27.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.693.854.0031.25%27.13%25.97%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.18%4.51fair odd
EV -4.62%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -1.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.90%22.25%22.18%22.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.194.204.3025.00%23.87%23.81%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mora IK (Local): 50.23%; Västerås IK (Visit): 27.59%; Draw: 22.18%. For Västerås IK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.62. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.36%.

6 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.65%EV -10.09%E -5.64%K -12.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.01%EV +10.36%E +2.59%K +3.45%G +0.358%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.34%EV -4.62%E -1.07%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-25 16:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.65%EV -10.09%E -5.64%K -12.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.01%EV +10.36%E +2.59%K +3.45%G +0.358%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.34%EV -4.62%E -1.07%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-25 16:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.65%EV -10.09%E -5.64%K -12.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.01%EV +10.36%E +2.59%K +3.45%G +0.358%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.34%EV -4.62%E -1.07%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-25 16:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.65%EV -10.09%E -5.64%K -12.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.01%EV +10.36%E +2.59%K +3.45%G +0.358%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.34%EV -4.62%E -1.07%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-25 16:45
Unibet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.61%EV -12.10%E -6.92%K -16.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV +7.60%E +1.95%K +2.62%G +0.199%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -6.84%E -1.63%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-25 16:45
Grosvenor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.61%EV -12.10%E -6.92%K -16.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV +7.60%E +1.95%K +2.62%G +0.199%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -6.84%E -1.63%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-25 16:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.61%EV -12.10%E -6.92%K -16.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV +7.60%E +1.95%K +2.62%G +0.199%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -6.84%E -1.63%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-25 16:45
TABtouch🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.71%EV -14.61%E -8.60%K -20.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.03%EV +4.85%E +1.28%K +1.73%G +0.084%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.27%EV -9.05%E -2.21%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-25 16:45
Coolbet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.77%EV -5.57%E -2.96%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.51%EV -0.673%E -0.187%K -0.259%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.72%EV -6.84%E -1.63%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-25 16:15
1xBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -8.08%E -4.42%K -9.74%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 27.30%EV -7.02%E -2.08%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.44%EV -9.05%E -2.21%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-25 16:49
Unibet (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.31%EV -7.08%E -3.83%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -7.57%E -2.26%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.90%EV -5.73%E -1.35%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-25 16:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.42%EV -9.09%E -5.02%K -11.22%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.32%EV -7.85%E -2.35%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -9.05%E -2.21%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-25 16:40
Codere (IT)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.18%EV -9.59%E -5.33%K -11.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -10.33%E -3.18%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -9.05%E -2.21%K -2.92%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-25 16:45
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.69%EV -9.59%E -5.33%K -11.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -11.71%E -3.66%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -11.27%E -2.82%K -3.76%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-25 16:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (6)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.00%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.00%5.1%2026-09-25 16:25
Betsson🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.00%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.00%5.1%2026-09-25 16:25
Pinnacle🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.41%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%7.5%2026-09-25 16:55
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%7.9%2026-09-24 12:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%7.9%2026-09-24 12:44
Smarkets◎1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%8.3%2026-09-25 16:45