The School of Odds
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Mora IK v Almtuna IS

Kickoff: 2026-10-21 17:00 UTC

Final: Mora IK 6–0 Almtuna IS

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mora IK (Local)

Prediction 48.89%2.05fair odd
EV +2.67%
Edge +1.27%
Kelly +2.43%
Growth +0.065%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.41%49.55%48.89%52.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.992.062.1057.14%50.33%48.54%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Almtuna IS (Visit)

Prediction 28.88%3.46fair odd
EV +1.65%
Edge +0.469%
Kelly +0.655%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 3.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.91%28.24%28.88%32.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.072.953.5235.71%32.57%33.90%28.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.23%4.50fair odd
EV -3.30%
Edge -0.758%
Kelly -0.984%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.98%22.21%22.23%22.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.234.254.3525.00%23.61%23.53%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mora IK (Local): 48.89%; Almtuna IS (Visit): 28.88%; Draw: 22.23%. For Mora IK (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.05. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.67%.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.57%EV +2.67%E +1.27%K +2.43%G +0.065%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.44%EV -14.81%E -5.02%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.00%EV -3.30%E -0.758%K -0.984%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-21 15:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.57%EV +2.67%E +1.27%K +2.43%G +0.065%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.44%EV -14.81%E -5.02%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.00%EV -3.30%E -0.758%K -0.984%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-21 15:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.57%EV +2.67%E +1.27%K +2.43%G +0.065%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.44%EV -14.81%E -5.02%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.00%EV -3.30%E -0.758%K -0.984%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-21 15:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.57%EV +2.67%E +1.27%K +2.43%G +0.065%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.44%EV -14.81%E -5.02%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.00%EV -3.30%E -0.758%K -0.984%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-21 15:25
Unibet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.56%EV +0.716%E +0.348%K +0.676%G +0.005%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -16.25%E -5.60%K -8.55%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.08%EV -5.52%E -1.30%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-21 15:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.56%EV +0.716%E +0.348%K +0.676%G +0.005%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -16.25%E -5.60%K -8.55%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.08%EV -5.52%E -1.30%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-21 15:15
Grosvenor🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.56%EV +0.716%E +0.348%K +0.676%G +0.005%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -16.25%E -5.60%K -8.55%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.08%EV -5.52%E -1.30%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-21 15:15
TABtouch🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.41%EV -2.22%E -1.11%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.44%EV -19.14%E -6.84%K -10.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -8.86%E -2.16%K -2.86%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-21 15:15
Coolbet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.44%EV -3.68%E -1.87%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.36%EV -6.15%E -1.89%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.19%EV -4.41%E -1.03%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-21 16:24
Unibet (UK)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.09%EV -7.11%E -3.74%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -6.15%E -1.89%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.21%EV -6.63%E -1.58%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-21 16:14
Codere (IT)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.56%EV -9.55%E -5.16%K -11.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -10.48%E -3.38%K -4.99%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -11.08%E -2.77%K -3.69%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-21 16:21
1xBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.61%EV -12.97%E -7.29%K -16.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV +1.07%E +0.307%K +0.430%G +0.005%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.14%EV -7.74%E -1.87%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-21 16:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -14.44%E -8.25%K -19.25%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 25.91%EV +1.65%E +0.469%K +0.655%G +0.011%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.98%EV -7.74%E -1.87%K -2.46%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-21 16:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%5.0%2026-10-21 16:25
NordicBet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%5.4%2026-10-21 16:59
Neds🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%7.2%2026-10-20 10:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%7.2%2026-10-20 10:35
Pinnacle🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.91%2.51I 39.84%NM 37.09%7.4%2026-10-21 16:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%7.6%2026-10-20 10:25
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%7.6%2026-10-20 11:19
Smarkets◎1.53I 65.36%NM 60.26%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.74%8.5%2026-10-21 16:15