The School of Odds
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Modo Hockey v Leksands IF

Kickoff: 2026-09-25 18:36 UTC

Final: Modo Hockey 1–6 Leksands IF

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Modo Hockey (Local)

Prediction 36.66%2.73fair odd
EV -1.03%
Edge -0.381%
Kelly -0.606%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.03%36.54%36.38%37.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.602.632.7041.67%38.44%38.02%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Leksands IF (Visit)

Prediction 40.76%2.45fair odd
EV -5.02%
Edge -2.16%
Kelly -3.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.00%40.85%41.06%41.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.172.252.252.3346.08%44.37%44.44%42.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.58%4.43fair odd
EV -4.03%
Edge -0.948%
Kelly -1.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.44%22.61%22.56%23.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.984.114.104.2525.13%24.32%24.39%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Modo Hockey (Local): 36.66%; Leksands IF (Visit): 40.76%; Draw: 22.58%. For Modo Hockey (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.73. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.70, with an expected value of -1.03%; they did not produce positive expected value.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.60%EV -1.03%E -0.381%K -0.606%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.79%EV -6.25%E -2.72%K -4.80%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.61%EV -4.03%E -0.948%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-25 17:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.60%EV -1.03%E -0.381%K -0.606%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.79%EV -6.25%E -2.72%K -4.80%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.61%EV -4.03%E -0.948%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-25 17:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.60%EV -1.03%E -0.381%K -0.606%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.79%EV -6.25%E -2.72%K -4.80%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.61%EV -4.03%E -0.948%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-25 17:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.60%EV -1.03%E -0.381%K -0.606%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.79%EV -6.25%E -2.72%K -4.80%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.61%EV -4.03%E -0.948%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-25 17:19
Coolbet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.30%EV -3.60%E -1.37%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.97%EV -5.02%E -2.16%K -3.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.73%EV -5.16%E -1.23%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-25 15:54
Unibet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.58%EV -3.60%E -1.37%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.59%EV -8.28%E -3.68%K -6.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -7.42%E -1.81%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-25 17:19
Unibet (NL)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.58%EV -3.60%E -1.37%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.59%EV -8.28%E -3.68%K -6.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -7.42%E -1.81%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-25 17:20
Grosvenor🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.58%EV -3.60%E -1.37%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.59%EV -8.28%E -3.68%K -6.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -7.42%E -1.81%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-25 17:20
1xBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.03%EV -3.96%E -1.51%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 41.91%EV -10.73%E -4.90%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.06%EV -10.13%E -2.54%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-25 18:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 35.16%EV -5.06%E -1.95%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.96%EV -11.54%E -5.32%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 22.88%EV -10.13%E -2.54%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-25 18:09
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.62%EV -6.53%E -2.56%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.67%EV -11.14%E -5.11%K -9.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.71%EV -9.67%E -2.42%K -3.22%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-25 17:20
Codere (IT)🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 36.17%EV -8.73%E -3.50%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.31%EV -11.14%E -5.11%K -9.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.52%EV -9.67%E -2.42%K -3.22%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-25 16:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -10.19%E -4.16%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.00%EV -6.25%E -2.72%K -4.80%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.44%EV -7.42%E -1.81%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-25 18:30
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.50%EV -12.03%E -5.01%K -8.59%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -8.28%E -3.68%K -6.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -9.67%E -2.42%K -3.22%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-25 18:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%5.3%2026-09-25 18:29
Betsson🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%5.3%2026-09-25 18:30
Pinnacle🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.74%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.26%7.2%2026-09-25 18:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%7.9%2026-09-24 12:44
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%7.9%2026-09-24 12:44
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%7.9%2026-09-24 12:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%7.9%2026-09-24 12:44
Smarkets◎1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%8.2%2026-09-25 18:35