The School of Odds
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Modo Hockey v AIK

Kickoff: 2026-10-23 16:04 UTC

Final: Modo Hockey 3–4 AIK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Modo Hockey (Local)

Prediction 39.08%2.56fair odd
EV +1.60%
Edge +0.617%
Kelly +1.00%
Growth +0.016%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.99%39.09%38.94%39.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.292.472.512.6043.67%40.52%39.76%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AIK (Visit)

Prediction 38.15%2.62fair odd
EV -5.40%
Edge -2.18%
Kelly -3.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.33%38.08%38.28%38.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.432.442.4842.55%41.09%41.07%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.77%4.39fair odd
EV -6.62%
Edge -1.62%
Kelly -2.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.57%22.83%22.77%24.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.803.973.994.1026.32%25.18%25.06%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Modo Hockey (Local): 39.08%; AIK (Visit): 38.15%; Draw: 22.77%. For Modo Hockey (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.56. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.60%.

6 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.06%EV +1.60%E +0.617%K +1.00%G +0.016%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.85%EV -5.40%E -2.18%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.09%EV -8.90%E -2.23%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-21 21:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.06%EV +1.60%E +0.617%K +1.00%G +0.016%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.85%EV -5.40%E -2.18%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.09%EV -8.90%E -2.23%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-21 21:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.06%EV +1.60%E +0.617%K +1.00%G +0.016%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.85%EV -5.40%E -2.18%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.09%EV -8.90%E -2.23%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-21 21:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.06%EV +1.60%E +0.617%K +1.00%G +0.016%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.85%EV -5.40%E -2.18%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.09%EV -8.90%E -2.23%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-21 21:00
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.99%EV -0.350%E -0.137%K -0.226%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.82%EV -7.30%E -3.01%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -11.18%E -2.87%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-21 21:00
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.99%EV -0.350%E -0.137%K -0.226%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.82%EV -7.30%E -3.01%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -11.18%E -2.87%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-21 21:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.99%EV -0.350%E -0.137%K -0.226%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.82%EV -7.30%E -3.01%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -11.18%E -2.87%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-21 21:00
Coolbet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.39%EV -3.09%E -1.24%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.39%EV -5.40%E -2.18%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -6.62%E -1.62%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-21 21:30
TABtouch🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.21%EV -4.26%E -1.74%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.80%EV -10.36%E -4.41%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.99%EV -13.46%E -3.54%K -4.81%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-21 21:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.88%EV -6.99%E -2.94%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.55%EV -8.45%E -3.52%K -6.03%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.57%EV -6.62%E -1.62%K -2.14%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-23 15:30
Codere (IT)🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 38.94%EV -9.73%E -4.21%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.28%EV -10.36%E -4.41%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.77%EV -10.04%E -2.54%K -3.40%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-23 15:35
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -10.12%E -4.40%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.83%EV -8.45%E -3.52%K -6.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -8.90%E -2.23%K -2.97%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-23 15:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 39.78%EV -10.51%E -4.59%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 37.33%EV -6.92%E -2.84%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 22.89%EV -9.36%E -2.35%K -3.14%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-23 15:24
1xBet🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 39.78%EV -10.51%E -4.59%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 37.33%EV -6.92%E -2.84%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 22.89%EV -9.36%E -2.35%K -3.14%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-23 15:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (6)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%5.0%2026-10-23 15:30
NordicBet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%5.0%2026-10-23 15:30
Pinnacle🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.27%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.73%6.9%2026-10-23 15:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%7.0%2026-10-22 15:32
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%7.0%2026-10-22 15:39
Smarkets◎1.84I 54.35%NM 50.40%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.60%7.8%2026-10-23 15:30