The School of Odds
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Leksands IF v Vimmerby HC

Kickoff: 2026-10-14 17:00 UTC

Final: Leksands IF 4–0 Vimmerby HC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Leksands IF (Local)

Prediction 72.41%1.38fair odd
EV -7.32%
Edge -5.72%
Kelly -26.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.47%72.48%72.21%75.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.211.261.271.2882.64%79.50%79.05%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Vimmerby HC (Visit)

Prediction 11.84%8.45fair odd
EV +2.98%
Edge +0.343%
Kelly +0.387%
Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 8.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.95%11.84%11.83%12.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.108.128.508.7014.08%12.32%11.76%11.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 15.76%6.35fair odd
EV +10.29%
Edge +1.47%
Kelly +1.71%
Growth +0.176%

assuming max odds 7.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.39%15.69%15.96%16.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.406.526.887.0018.52%15.34%14.55%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Leksands IF (Local): 72.41%; Vimmerby HC (Visit): 11.84%; Draw: 15.76%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.35. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.29%.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.14%EV -8.04%E -6.33%K -29.79%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.23%EV +0.616%E +0.072%K +0.082%G +0.001%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.63%EV +10.29%E +1.47%K +1.71%G +0.176%4.8%2026-10-14 13:19
Unibet (SE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.14%EV -8.04%E -6.33%K -29.79%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.23%EV +0.616%E +0.072%K +0.082%G +0.001%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.63%EV +10.29%E +1.47%K +1.71%G +0.176%4.8%2026-10-14 13:19
ATG (SE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.14%EV -8.04%E -6.33%K -29.79%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.23%EV +0.616%E +0.072%K +0.082%G +0.001%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.63%EV +10.29%E +1.47%K +1.71%G +0.176%4.8%2026-10-14 13:19
Svenska Spel🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.14%EV -8.04%E -6.33%K -29.79%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.23%EV +0.616%E +0.072%K +0.082%G +0.001%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.63%EV +10.29%E +1.47%K +1.71%G +0.176%4.8%2026-10-14 13:19
Unibet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.58%EV -10.21%E -8.24%K -42.56%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.03%EV +0.616%E +0.072%K +0.082%G +0.001%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV +10.29%E +1.47%K +1.71%G +0.176%6.7%2026-10-14 13:19
Grosvenor🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.58%EV -10.21%E -8.24%K -42.56%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.03%EV +0.616%E +0.072%K +0.082%G +0.001%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV +10.29%E +1.47%K +1.71%G +0.176%6.7%2026-10-14 13:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.58%EV -10.21%E -8.24%K -42.56%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.03%EV +0.616%E +0.072%K +0.082%G +0.001%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV +10.29%E +1.47%K +1.71%G +0.176%6.7%2026-10-14 13:20
TABtouch🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.16%EV -12.39%E -10.24%K -58.98%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.37%EV -5.30%E -0.663%K -0.758%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.47%EV +6.35%E +0.940%K +1.10%G +0.070%10.0%2026-10-14 13:19
Coolbet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.40%EV -7.32%E -5.72%K -26.14%G +0.000%8.70I 11.49%NM 10.95%EV +2.98%E +0.343%K +0.387%G +0.012%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.65%EV +2.41%E +0.370%K +0.438%G +0.011%5.0%2026-10-14 15:33
1xBet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.34%EV -8.04%E -6.33%K -29.79%G +0.000%7.22I 13.85%NM 12.72%EV -14.54%E -2.01%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.15I 16.26%NM 14.94%EV -3.11%E -0.505%K -0.603%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-14 16:49
Marathon Bet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.34%EV -8.77%E -6.96%K -33.72%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 12.84%EV -15.96%E -2.25%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.15I 16.26%NM 14.82%EV -3.11%E -0.505%K -0.603%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-14 16:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.43%EV -7.32%E -5.72%K -26.14%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.59%EV -5.30%E -0.663%K -0.758%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.98%EV -8.62%E -1.49%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-14 16:44
Betway🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.74%EV -9.49%E -7.59%K -37.96%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -11.22%E -1.50%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -13.35%E -2.43%K -2.97%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-14 16:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 71.47%EV -8.77%E -6.96%K -33.72%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 11.85%EV -10.04%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.68%EV -14.92%E -2.76%K -3.39%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-14 16:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.73%5.51I 18.15%NM 17.27%5.1%2026-10-14 15:14
NordicBet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.73%5.51I 18.15%NM 17.27%5.1%2026-10-14 15:14
Smarkets◎1.16I 86.21%NM 79.86%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%7.9%2026-10-14 16:45
Coral🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.00%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%8.7%2026-10-13 20:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.00%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%8.7%2026-10-13 20:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.00%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%8.7%2026-10-13 20:14
Neds🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.00%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%8.7%2026-10-13 20:19
Pinnacle🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.29%4.22I 23.70%NM 21.71%9.2%2026-10-14 16:50