The School of Odds
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Leksands IF v Nybro Vikings IF

Kickoff: 2026-10-07 17:00 UTC

Final: Leksands IF 7–1 Nybro Vikings IF

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Leksands IF (Local)

Prediction 66.90%1.49fair odd
EV -6.33%
Edge -4.52%
Kelly -15.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.73%66.90%66.54%69.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.371.381.4076.92%73.17%72.73%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nybro Vikings IF (Visit)

Prediction 15.19%6.58fair odd
EV +3.29%
Edge +0.484%
Kelly +0.568%
Growth +0.019%

assuming max odds 6.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.94%15.19%15.60%15.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.806.506.756.8017.24%15.39%14.81%14.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 17.91%5.58fair odd
EV +3.85%
Edge +0.665%
Kelly +0.803%
Growth +0.031%

assuming max odds 5.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.17%17.91%17.86%18.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.575.755.8020.00%17.95%17.39%17.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Leksands IF (Local): 66.90%; Nybro Vikings IF (Visit): 15.19%; Draw: 17.91%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.58. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.85%.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.33%EV -7.67%E -5.56%K -20.19%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.17%EV +2.53%E +0.376%K +0.441%G +0.011%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.50%EV +3.85%E +0.665%K +0.803%G +0.031%4.5%2026-10-05 12:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.33%EV -7.67%E -5.56%K -20.19%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.17%EV +2.53%E +0.376%K +0.441%G +0.011%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.50%EV +3.85%E +0.665%K +0.803%G +0.031%4.5%2026-10-05 12:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.33%EV -7.67%E -5.56%K -20.19%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.17%EV +2.53%E +0.376%K +0.441%G +0.011%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.50%EV +3.85%E +0.665%K +0.803%G +0.031%4.5%2026-10-05 12:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.33%EV -7.67%E -5.56%K -20.19%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.17%EV +2.53%E +0.376%K +0.441%G +0.011%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.50%EV +3.85%E +0.665%K +0.803%G +0.031%4.5%2026-10-05 12:30
Unibet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.70%EV -9.68%E -7.17%K -27.66%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.94%EV +2.53%E +0.376%K +0.441%G +0.011%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.36%EV +2.96%E +0.515%K +0.623%G +0.018%6.3%2026-10-05 12:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.70%EV -9.68%E -7.17%K -27.66%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.94%EV +2.53%E +0.376%K +0.441%G +0.011%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.36%EV +2.96%E +0.515%K +0.623%G +0.018%6.3%2026-10-05 12:25
Grosvenor🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.70%EV -9.68%E -7.17%K -27.66%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.94%EV +2.53%E +0.376%K +0.441%G +0.011%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.36%EV +2.96%E +0.515%K +0.623%G +0.018%6.3%2026-10-05 12:25
TABtouch🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.67%EV -13.03%E -10.02%K -43.42%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.15%EV -2.78%E -0.435%K -0.515%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.17%EV +0.274%E +0.049%K +0.059%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-05 12:25
Coolbet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.03%EV -6.33%E -4.52%K -15.84%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.01%EV +3.29%E +0.484%K +0.568%G +0.019%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.97%EV -5.10%E -0.962%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-04 20:45
1xBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 66.99%EV -8.34%E -6.09%K -22.55%G +0.000%5.91I 16.92%NM 15.53%EV -10.23%E -1.73%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.48%EV -5.99%E -1.14%K -1.41%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-05 12:34
Marathon Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.96%EV -9.01%E -6.63%K -25.03%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.70%EV -11.90%E -2.05%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.34%EV -5.99%E -1.14%K -1.41%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-05 12:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.73%EV -6.33%E -4.52%K -15.84%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.87%EV -11.90%E -2.05%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -10.47%E -2.09%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-05 12:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.15%3.99I 25.06%NM 23.85%5.1%2026-10-05 12:30
Betsson🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.15%3.99I 25.06%NM 23.85%5.1%2026-10-05 12:30