The School of Odds
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Leksands IF v Kalmar HC

Kickoff: 2026-10-21 17:00 UTC

Final: Leksands IF 3–6 Kalmar HC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Leksands IF (Local)

Prediction 51.54%1.94fair odd
EV -7.23%
Edge -4.01%
Kelly -9.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.01%52.00%51.54%57.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.701.681.8062.50%58.69%59.52%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kalmar HC (Visit)

Prediction 27.38%3.65fair odd
EV +19.11%
Edge +4.39%
Kelly +5.71%
Growth +1.09%

assuming max odds 4.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.05%26.87%27.38%27.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.954.254.3530.77%25.29%23.53%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.08%4.74fair odd
EV -3.05%
Edge -0.662%
Kelly -0.846%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.85%21.13%21.08%21.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.474.504.6023.81%22.39%22.22%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Leksands IF (Local): 51.54%; Kalmar HC (Visit): 27.38%; Draw: 21.08%. For Kalmar HC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.65. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +19.11%.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.10%EV -13.41%E -7.98%K -19.72%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.05%EV +19.11%E +4.39%K +5.71%G +1.09%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.85%EV -3.05%E -0.662%K -0.846%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-21 15:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.10%EV -13.41%E -7.98%K -19.72%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.05%EV +19.11%E +4.39%K +5.71%G +1.09%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.85%EV -3.05%E -0.662%K -0.846%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-21 15:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.10%EV -13.41%E -7.98%K -19.72%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.05%EV +19.11%E +4.39%K +5.71%G +1.09%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.85%EV -3.05%E -0.662%K -0.846%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-21 15:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.10%EV -13.41%E -7.98%K -19.72%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.05%EV +19.11%E +4.39%K +5.71%G +1.09%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.85%EV -3.05%E -0.662%K -0.846%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-21 15:15
Unibet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.98%EV -14.96%E -9.07%K -23.01%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.12%EV +16.37%E +3.85%K +5.04%G +0.825%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.89%EV -5.15%E -1.15%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-21 15:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.98%EV -14.96%E -9.07%K -23.01%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.12%EV +16.37%E +3.85%K +5.04%G +0.825%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.89%EV -5.15%E -1.15%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-21 15:15
Grosvenor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.98%EV -14.96%E -9.07%K -23.01%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.12%EV +16.37%E +3.85%K +5.04%G +0.825%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.89%EV -5.15%E -1.15%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-21 15:15
TABtouch🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.88%EV -17.53%E -10.96%K -29.22%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.20%EV +12.27%E +2.99%K +3.96%G +0.485%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.92%EV -8.32%E -1.91%K -2.48%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-21 15:15
Coolbet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.91%EV -8.77%E -4.96%K -11.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.11%EV +4.05%E +1.07%K +1.45%G +0.059%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.97%EV -4.10%E -0.901%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-21 16:21
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.59%EV -7.23%E -4.01%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -6.90%E -2.03%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -7.26%E -1.65%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-21 16:14
1xBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.61%EV -8.26%E -4.64%K -10.59%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.18%EV -7.45%E -2.20%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.21%EV -8.74%E -2.02%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-21 16:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.50%EV -8.77%E -4.96%K -11.39%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 27.45%EV -9.09%E -2.74%K -3.92%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.05%EV -8.74%E -2.02%K -2.62%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-21 16:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.01%EV -9.29%E -5.28%K -12.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.62%EV -11.01%E -3.39%K -4.89%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -11.48%E -2.73%K -3.59%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-21 16:21
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.07%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.93%5.3%2026-10-21 16:55
Betsson🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.07%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.93%5.3%2026-10-21 16:55
Pinnacle🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%7.4%2026-10-21 16:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%7.4%2026-10-21 16:25
Neds🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%7.4%2026-10-21 16:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%7.6%2026-10-21 16:25
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%7.6%2026-10-21 16:25
Smarkets◎1.50I 66.67%NM 61.93%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.07%7.7%2026-10-21 16:50