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Leksands IF v IK Oskarshamn

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 16:00 UTC

Final: Leksands IF 4–3 IK Oskarshamn

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Leksands IF (Local)

Prediction 52.91%1.89fair odd
EV -5.83%
Edge -3.27%
Kelly -7.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.59%53.49%52.90%56.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.741.751.7859.88%57.38%57.31%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

IK Oskarshamn (Visit)

Prediction 25.80%3.88fair odd
EV +9.67%
Edge +2.28%
Kelly +2.98%
Growth +0.288%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.38%25.26%25.81%26.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.443.813.954.2529.07%26.22%25.32%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.29%4.70fair odd
EV -2.07%
Edge -0.450%
Kelly -0.575%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.67%21.25%21.29%22.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.274.224.6024.39%23.43%23.67%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Leksands IF (Local): 52.91%; IK Oskarshamn (Visit): 25.80%; Draw: 21.29%. For IK Oskarshamn (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.88. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.67%.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.95%EV -11.65%E -6.97%K -17.38%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.38%EV +9.67%E +2.28%K +2.98%G +0.288%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.67%EV -2.07%E -0.450%K -0.575%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-03 10:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.79%EV -5.83%E -3.27%K -7.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.94%EV +3.22%E +0.805%K +1.07%G +0.035%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.27%EV -8.46%E -1.97%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-03 15:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.79%EV -5.83%E -3.27%K -7.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.94%EV +3.22%E +0.805%K +1.07%G +0.035%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.27%EV -8.46%E -1.97%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-03 15:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.79%EV -5.83%E -3.27%K -7.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.94%EV +3.22%E +0.805%K +1.07%G +0.035%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.27%EV -8.46%E -1.97%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-03 15:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.79%EV -5.83%E -3.27%K -7.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.94%EV +3.22%E +0.805%K +1.07%G +0.035%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.27%EV -8.46%E -1.97%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-03 15:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.91%EV -7.94%E -4.57%K -10.73%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV +1.93%E +0.488%K +0.654%G +0.013%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -10.59%E -2.52%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-03 15:45
Grosvenor🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.91%EV -7.94%E -4.57%K -10.73%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV +1.93%E +0.488%K +0.654%G +0.013%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -10.59%E -2.52%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-03 15:45
Unibet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.91%EV -7.94%E -4.57%K -10.73%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV +1.93%E +0.488%K +0.654%G +0.013%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -10.59%E -2.52%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-03 15:45
TABtouch🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.00%EV -11.12%E -6.62%K -16.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.87%EV -1.94%E -0.511%K -0.693%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.13%EV -12.71%E -3.10%K -4.10%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-03 15:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.08%EV -7.41%E -4.24%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -7.10%E -1.97%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -6.33%E -1.44%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-03 15:45
Betway🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.88%EV -9.53%E -5.57%K -13.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.84%EV -9.68%E -2.77%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.28%EV -9.52%E -2.24%K -2.93%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-03 15:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.75%EV -9.53%E -5.57%K -13.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.77%EV -9.68%E -2.77%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.48%EV -10.59%E -2.52%K -3.31%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-03 15:45
1xBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.59%EV -5.83%E -3.27%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 26.54%EV -10.72%E -3.10%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.87%EV -10.59%E -2.52%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-03 15:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.80%EV -6.89%E -3.91%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 26.50%EV -11.23%E -3.26%K -4.60%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -10.59%E -2.52%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-03 15:51
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.99%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.01%5.1%2026-10-03 15:56
NordicBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.56%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.44%5.2%2026-10-03 15:45
Pinnacle🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.32%2.41I 41.49%NM 38.68%7.3%2026-10-03 15:51
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%7.8%2026-10-03 08:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%7.8%2026-10-03 08:30
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%7.8%2026-10-03 08:34
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%7.8%2026-10-03 08:40
Smarkets◎1.45I 68.97%NM 63.84%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.16%8.0%2026-10-03 15:45