The School of Odds
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Leksands IF v IK Oskarshamn

Kickoff: 2026-09-23 17:00 UTC

Final: Leksands IF 5–3 IK Oskarshamn

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Leksands IF (Local)

Prediction 59.70%1.67fair odd
EV -3.28%
Edge -2.03%
Kelly -5.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.79%60.01%59.79%62.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.461.551.561.6268.49%64.52%64.10%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

IK Oskarshamn (Visit)

Prediction 20.09%4.98fair odd
EV +2.43%
Edge +0.477%
Kelly +0.594%
Growth +0.014%

assuming max odds 5.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.00%19.77%20.07%20.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.784.805.1022.73%20.91%20.83%19.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.21%4.95fair odd
EV -2.98%
Edge -0.621%
Kelly -0.784%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.38%20.22%20.15%21.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.664.704.8022.73%21.47%21.28%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Leksands IF (Local): 59.70%; IK Oskarshamn (Visit): 20.09%; Draw: 20.21%. For IK Oskarshamn (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.98. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.43%.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.46%EV -12.24%E -8.32%K -26.04%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.00%EV +2.43%E +0.477%K +0.594%G +0.014%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.54%EV -5.00%E -1.06%K -1.35%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-23 16:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 62.40%EV -12.83%E -8.79%K -27.90%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV +0.426%E +0.085%K +0.107%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.38%EV -5.00%E -1.06%K -1.35%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-23 16:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.25%EV -4.48%E -2.80%K -7.46%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.67%EV -1.58%E -0.323%K -0.406%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.08%EV -2.98%E -0.621%K -0.784%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-23 16:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.25%EV -4.48%E -2.80%K -7.46%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.67%EV -1.58%E -0.323%K -0.406%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.08%EV -2.98%E -0.621%K -0.784%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-23 16:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.25%EV -4.48%E -2.80%K -7.46%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.67%EV -1.58%E -0.323%K -0.406%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.08%EV -2.98%E -0.621%K -0.784%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-23 16:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.25%EV -4.48%E -2.80%K -7.46%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.67%EV -1.58%E -0.323%K -0.406%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.08%EV -2.98%E -0.621%K -0.784%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-23 16:20
Unibet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.35%EV -6.86%E -4.40%K -12.26%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.61%EV -3.59%E -0.748%K -0.945%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -5.00%E -1.06%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-23 16:20
Grosvenor🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.35%EV -6.86%E -4.40%K -12.26%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.61%EV -3.59%E -0.748%K -0.945%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -5.00%E -1.06%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-23 16:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.35%EV -6.86%E -4.40%K -12.26%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.61%EV -3.59%E -0.748%K -0.945%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -5.00%E -1.06%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-23 16:20
Coolbet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.79%EV -3.28%E -2.03%K -5.29%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.05%EV -4.59%E -0.967%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%EV -9.04%E -2.01%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-23 15:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -7.46%E -4.81%K -13.57%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.13%EV -7.61%E -1.65%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.13%EV -7.02%E -1.53%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-23 16:45
TABtouch🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.26%EV -10.45%E -6.96%K -20.89%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -7.61%E -1.65%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -9.04%E -2.01%K -2.58%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-23 16:20
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.00%EV -10.45%E -6.96%K -20.89%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -9.62%E -2.14%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -9.04%E -2.01%K -2.58%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-23 16:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.14%EV -9.25%E -6.09%K -17.79%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.43%EV -11.62%E -2.64%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.43%EV -11.07%E -2.51%K -3.25%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-23 16:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.46%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.54%5.5%2026-09-23 16:45
Betsson🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.46%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.54%5.5%2026-09-23 16:45
Smarkets◎1.32I 75.76%NM 70.14%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%8.0%2026-09-23 16:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%8.5%2026-09-23 16:40
Coral🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%8.5%2026-09-23 16:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%8.5%2026-09-23 16:35
Neds🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%8.5%2026-09-23 16:35
Pinnacle🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.72%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.28%8.8%2026-09-23 16:45