The School of Odds
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Leksands IF v Almtuna IS

Kickoff: 2026-09-27 14:30 UTC

Final: Leksands IF 3–2 Almtuna IS

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Leksands IF (Local)

Prediction 66.36%1.51fair odd
EV -5.11%
Edge -3.57%
Kelly -11.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.17%66.52%66.12%68.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.391.401.4375.19%71.72%71.43%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Almtuna IS (Visit)

Prediction 15.45%6.47fair odd
EV -3.12%
Edge -0.498%
Kelly -0.593%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.62%15.38%15.43%15.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.756.026.056.2717.39%16.60%16.53%15.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.19%5.50fair odd
EV +4.60%
Edge +0.799%
Kelly +0.968%
Growth +0.044%

assuming max odds 5.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.77%18.10%18.46%19.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.755.435.505.7521.05%18.41%18.18%17.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Leksands IF (Local): 66.36%; Almtuna IS (Visit): 15.45%; Draw: 18.19%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.50. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.60%.

6 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.43%EV -5.11%E -3.57%K -11.88%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.81%EV -5.75%E -0.943%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.77%EV +4.60%E +0.799%K +0.968%G +0.044%3.7%2026-09-27 12:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.43%EV -5.11%E -3.57%K -11.88%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.81%EV -5.75%E -0.943%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.77%EV +4.60%E +0.799%K +0.968%G +0.044%3.7%2026-09-27 12:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.43%EV -5.11%E -3.57%K -11.88%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.81%EV -5.75%E -0.943%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.77%EV +4.60%E +0.799%K +0.968%G +0.044%3.7%2026-09-27 12:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.43%EV -5.11%E -3.57%K -11.88%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.81%EV -5.75%E -0.943%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.77%EV +4.60%E +0.799%K +0.968%G +0.044%3.7%2026-09-27 12:45
Unibet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.42%EV -7.10%E -5.07%K -17.75%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.30%E -1.22%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.85%EV +1.87%E +0.334%K +0.406%G +0.008%6.0%2026-09-27 12:40
Grosvenor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.42%EV -7.10%E -5.07%K -17.75%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.30%E -1.22%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.85%EV +1.87%E +0.334%K +0.406%G +0.008%6.0%2026-09-27 12:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.42%EV -7.10%E -5.07%K -17.75%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.30%E -1.22%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.85%EV +1.87%E +0.334%K +0.406%G +0.008%6.0%2026-09-27 12:45
Coolbet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.02%EV -5.77%E -4.06%K -13.74%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.35%EV -4.21%E -0.678%K -0.809%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.62%EV -1.77%E -0.328%K -0.402%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-27 12:20
1xBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.41%EV -11.08%E -8.27%K -32.59%G +0.000%6.27I 15.95%NM 14.62%EV -3.12%E -0.498%K -0.593%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.97%EV -1.77%E -0.328%K -0.402%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-27 13:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.37%EV -11.74%E -8.83%K -35.59%G +0.000%6.15I 16.26%NM 14.79%EV -4.98%E -0.809%K -0.967%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.84%EV -1.77%E -0.328%K -0.402%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-27 13:20
TABtouch🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.35%EV -10.42%E -7.72%K -29.76%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.81%EV -11.16%E -1.94%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.84%EV -1.77%E -0.328%K -0.402%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-27 12:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.08%EV -7.10%E -5.07%K -17.75%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -7.30%E -1.22%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -9.05%E -1.81%K -2.26%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-27 12:30
Codere (IT)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 65.97%EV -9.09%E -6.63%K -24.56%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.58%EV -10.39%E -1.79%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.45%EV -10.87%E -2.22%K -2.79%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-27 12:30
Betway🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 65.17%EV -7.76%E -5.58%K -19.90%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.75%EV -11.16%E -1.94%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.07%EV -13.59%E -2.86%K -3.63%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-27 12:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (6)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.53%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.47%5.1%2026-09-27 08:00
Betsson🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.53%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.47%5.1%2026-09-27 08:00
Coral🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%7.1%2026-09-27 07:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%7.1%2026-09-27 07:50
Smarkets◎1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%8.3%2026-09-27 12:30
Pinnacle🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.38%3.88I 25.77%NM 23.62%9.1%2026-09-27 04:40