Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kalmar HC v Mora IK

Kickoff: 2026-02-27 18:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kalmar HC (Local)

Prediction 62.69%1.60fair odd
EV -2.82%
Edge -1.82%
Kelly -5.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.00%62.63%62.88%65.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.471.481.5571.43%68.06%67.57%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mora IK (Visit)

Prediction 18.00%5.55fair odd
EV -0.980%
Edge -0.178%
Kelly -0.218%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.69%18.18%17.98%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.984.905.5022.22%20.07%20.41%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.30%5.18fair odd
EV +1.34%
Edge +0.255%
Kelly +0.315%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.80%19.19%19.13%20.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.075.205.2522.22%19.71%19.23%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kalmar HC (Local): 62.69%; Mora IK (Visit): 18.00%; Draw: 19.30%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.18. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.34%.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.13%EV -7.21%E -4.87%K -15.03%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.07%EV -11.78%E -2.40%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.80%EV +1.34%E +0.255%K +0.315%G +0.004%7.0%2026-02-27 18:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.13%EV -7.21%E -4.87%K -15.03%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.07%EV -11.78%E -2.40%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.80%EV +1.34%E +0.255%K +0.315%G +0.004%7.0%2026-02-27 17:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.13%EV -7.21%E -4.87%K -15.03%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.07%EV -11.78%E -2.40%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.80%EV +1.34%E +0.255%K +0.315%G +0.004%7.0%2026-02-27 17:59
Grosvenor🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.13%EV -7.21%E -4.87%K -15.03%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.07%EV -11.78%E -2.40%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.80%EV +1.34%E +0.255%K +0.315%G +0.004%7.0%2026-02-27 17:59
Unibet (NL)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.13%EV -7.21%E -4.87%K -15.03%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.07%EV -11.78%E -2.40%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.80%EV +1.34%E +0.255%K +0.315%G +0.004%7.0%2026-02-27 18:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.13%EV -7.21%E -4.87%K -15.03%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.07%EV -11.78%E -2.40%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.80%EV +1.34%E +0.255%K +0.315%G +0.004%7.0%2026-02-27 17:59
Svenska Spel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.13%EV -7.21%E -4.87%K -15.03%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.07%EV -11.78%E -2.40%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.80%EV +1.34%E +0.255%K +0.315%G +0.004%7.0%2026-02-27 17:59
LeoVegas🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.78%EV -7.21%E -4.87%K -15.03%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.36%EV -13.58%E -2.83%K -3.57%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.87%EV +0.372%E +0.072%K +0.089%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-27 17:59
TABtouch🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.07%EV -9.72%E -6.75%K -22.09%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.12%EV -14.48%E -3.05%K -3.86%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.81%EV -1.56%E -0.306%K -0.380%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-27 17:59
1xBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.12%EV -11.60%E -8.23%K -28.30%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.69%EV -0.980%E -0.178%K -0.218%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.18%EV -2.52%E -0.500%K -0.623%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-27 17:56
Marathon Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.08%EV -12.23%E -8.73%K -30.57%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.87%EV -2.78%E -0.515%K -0.632%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.04%EV -2.52%E -0.500%K -0.623%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-27 18:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.85%EV -7.84%E -5.33%K -16.68%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.38%EV -2.78%E -0.515%K -0.632%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -3.49%E -0.698%K -0.872%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-27 17:59
Coolbet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.34%EV -2.82%E -1.82%K -5.14%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.64%EV -8.18%E -1.60%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.02%EV -8.31%E -1.75%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-27 17:58
Codere (IT)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.88%EV -10.35%E -7.24%K -24.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -9.98%E -2.00%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.13%EV -9.28%E -1.97%K -2.51%G +0.000%11.2%2026-02-27 17:58
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.00%EV -5.96%E -3.97%K -11.92%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -18.98%E -4.22%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -13.14%E -2.92%K -3.75%G +0.000%11.1%2026-02-27 17:58
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.78%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.22%5.1%2026-02-27 17:59
Betsson🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.78%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.22%5.1%2026-02-27 18:00
Neds🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%6.9%2026-02-27 17:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%6.9%2026-02-27 17:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%7.5%2026-02-27 17:59
Coral🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%7.5%2026-02-27 17:59
Smarkets1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%8.2%2026-02-27 17:59
Pinnacle🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.00%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.00%9.0%2026-02-27 17:59