The School of Odds
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Kalmar HC v Mora IK

Kickoff: 2026-10-02 17:00 UTC

Final: Kalmar HC 2–0 Mora IK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kalmar HC (Local)

Prediction 57.62%1.74fair odd
EV -6.07%
Edge -3.73%
Kelly -9.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.14%57.79%57.43%60.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.581.591.6366.23%63.38%62.89%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mora IK (Visit)

Prediction 21.68%4.61fair odd
EV +4.04%
Edge +0.842%
Kelly +1.06%
Growth +0.043%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.73%21.57%21.89%22.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.554.654.8025.00%21.96%21.51%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.70%4.83fair odd
EV -0.632%
Edge -0.132%
Kelly -0.166%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.81%20.64%20.68%21.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.254.624.684.8023.53%21.64%21.39%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kalmar HC (Local): 57.62%; Mora IK (Visit): 21.68%; Draw: 20.70%. For Mora IK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.61. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.04%.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -7.80%E -4.88%K -13.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV +4.04%E +0.842%K +1.06%G +0.043%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV -0.632%E -0.132%K -0.166%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-02 07:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -7.80%E -4.88%K -13.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV +4.04%E +0.842%K +1.06%G +0.043%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV -0.632%E -0.132%K -0.166%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-02 07:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -7.80%E -4.88%K -13.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV +4.04%E +0.842%K +1.06%G +0.043%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV -0.632%E -0.132%K -0.166%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-02 07:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -7.80%E -4.88%K -13.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV +4.04%E +0.842%K +1.06%G +0.043%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV -0.632%E -0.132%K -0.166%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-02 07:30
Unibet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -10.11%E -6.48%K -18.05%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.95%EV +1.87%E +0.399%K +0.506%G +0.009%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.95%EV -2.70%E -0.575%K -0.730%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-02 07:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -10.11%E -6.48%K -18.05%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.95%EV +1.87%E +0.399%K +0.506%G +0.009%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.95%EV -2.70%E -0.575%K -0.730%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-02 07:30
Grosvenor🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -10.11%E -6.48%K -18.05%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.95%EV +1.87%E +0.399%K +0.506%G +0.009%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.95%EV -2.70%E -0.575%K -0.730%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-02 07:29
TABtouch🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.10%EV -12.99%E -8.60%K -25.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.73%EV -0.294%E -0.064%K -0.082%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.17%EV -6.84%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-02 07:30
Coolbet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.39%EV -6.07%E -3.73%K -9.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.15%EV -2.46%E -0.547%K -0.703%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.47%EV -3.74%E -0.804%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-02 12:35
1xBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.63%EV -11.26%E -7.31%K -20.85%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%EV -2.46%E -0.547%K -0.703%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.96%EV -4.77%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-01 06:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.94%EV -12.41%E -8.17%K -23.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -2.46%E -0.547%K -0.703%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.81%EV -4.77%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-01 06:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.43%EV -6.65%E -4.11%K -10.73%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.89%EV -7.88%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -6.84%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 08:44
Codere (IT)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.05%EV -8.96%E -5.67%K -15.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.99%EV -11.13%E -2.71%K -3.59%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.96%EV -10.98%E -2.55%K -3.33%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-02 08:45
Betway🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.14%EV -7.23%E -4.49%K -11.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.60%EV -13.30%E -3.32%K -4.43%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.27%EV -12.02%E -2.83%K -3.70%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-02 08:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.99%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.01%5.0%2026-10-02 16:59
NordicBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.41%3.01I 33.22%NM 31.59%5.2%2026-10-02 16:50
Coral🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%7.4%2026-10-02 08:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%7.4%2026-10-02 08:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%7.4%2026-10-02 08:45
Neds🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%7.4%2026-10-02 08:45
Pinnacle🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.14%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.86%7.9%2026-10-02 16:25
Smarkets◎1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%8.3%2026-10-02 08:45