The School of Odds
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Kalmar HC v Leksands IF

Kickoff: 2026-10-23 18:35 UTC

Final: Kalmar HC 0–5 Leksands IF

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kalmar HC (Local)

Prediction 36.56%2.74fair odd
EV +4.19%
Edge +1.47%
Kelly +2.27%
Growth +0.095%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.57%36.57%36.56%37.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.462.682.752.8540.65%37.30%36.36%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Leksands IF (Visit)

Prediction 41.31%2.42fair odd
EV -3.75%
Edge -1.61%
Kelly -2.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.79%41.27%41.35%43.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.202.202.3347.62%45.53%45.45%42.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.13%4.52fair odd
EV -5.93%
Edge -1.40%
Kelly -1.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.83%22.16%22.09%22.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.144.154.2525.00%24.14%24.10%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kalmar HC (Local): 36.56%; Leksands IF (Visit): 41.31%; Draw: 22.13%. For Kalmar HC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.74. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.19%.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.62%EV +4.19%E +1.47%K +2.27%G +0.095%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.56%EV -9.12%E -4.15%K -7.60%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.82%EV -7.04%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-22 08:19
Unibet (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.62%EV +4.19%E +1.47%K +2.27%G +0.095%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.56%EV -9.12%E -4.15%K -7.60%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.82%EV -7.04%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-22 08:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.62%EV +4.19%E +1.47%K +2.27%G +0.095%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.56%EV -9.12%E -4.15%K -7.60%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.82%EV -7.04%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-22 08:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.62%EV +4.19%E +1.47%K +2.27%G +0.095%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.56%EV -9.12%E -4.15%K -7.60%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.82%EV -7.04%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-22 08:20
Unibet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.57%EV +2.36%E +0.844%K +1.31%G +0.031%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.51%EV -10.78%E -4.99%K -9.29%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -9.25%E -2.26%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-22 08:20
Grosvenor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.57%EV +2.36%E +0.844%K +1.31%G +0.031%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.51%EV -10.78%E -4.99%K -9.29%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -9.25%E -2.26%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-22 08:19
Unibet (NL)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.57%EV +2.36%E +0.844%K +1.31%G +0.031%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.51%EV -10.78%E -4.99%K -9.29%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -9.25%E -2.26%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-22 08:20
TABtouch🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.78%EV -1.29%E -0.479%K -0.760%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -13.25%E -6.31%K -12.05%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.80%EV -11.46%E -2.87%K -3.82%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-22 08:19
Coolbet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.84%EV -5.68%E -2.20%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.79%EV -3.75%E -1.61%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.36%EV -5.93%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-23 14:43
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -6.78%E -2.66%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.79%EV -8.30%E -3.74%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.83%EV -5.93%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-23 13:54
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.21%EV -8.60%E -3.44%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.15%EV -9.12%E -4.15%K -7.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.63%EV -11.46%E -2.87%K -3.82%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-23 13:53
Codere (IT)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.32%EV -9.33%E -3.76%K -6.31%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 41.70%EV -10.78%E -4.99%K -9.29%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.97%EV -9.25%E -2.26%K -2.98%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-23 14:07
1xBet🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 37.09%EV -10.07%E -4.09%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.92%EV -7.88%E -3.54%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.99%EV -8.14%E -1.96%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-23 13:53
Marathon Bet🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 37.09%EV -10.07%E -4.09%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.92%EV -7.88%E -3.54%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.99%EV -8.14%E -1.96%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-23 13:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%5.4%2026-10-23 15:40
NordicBet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%5.4%2026-10-23 15:40
Pinnacle🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.40%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.60%7.1%2026-10-23 12:55
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%7.1%2026-10-22 16:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%7.1%2026-10-22 16:00
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%7.1%2026-10-22 15:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%7.1%2026-10-22 15:59
Smarkets◎1.96I 51.02%NM 47.17%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.83%8.2%2026-10-23 13:54