The School of Odds
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IK Oskarshamn v BIK Karlskoga

Kickoff: 2026-09-30 17:01 UTC

Final: IK Oskarshamn 5–4 BIK Karlskoga

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

IK Oskarshamn (Local)

Prediction 37.57%2.66fair odd
EV -4.19%
Edge -1.64%
Kelly -2.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.87%37.73%37.13%39.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.482.502.5543.48%40.26%40.00%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

BIK Karlskoga (Visit)

Prediction 39.73%2.52fair odd
EV -2.26%
Edge -0.919%
Kelly -1.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.33%39.56%40.18%40.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.232.332.332.4644.84%42.85%42.92%40.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.70%4.41fair odd
EV -2.40%
Edge -0.559%
Kelly -0.728%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.10%22.71%22.68%23.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.164.224.3025.32%24.05%23.67%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: IK Oskarshamn (Local): 37.57%; BIK Karlskoga (Visit): 39.73%; Draw: 22.70%. For BIK Karlskoga (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.52. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.46, with an expected value of -2.26%; they did not produce positive expected value.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.53%EV -4.19%E -1.64%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.21%EV -5.44%E -2.29%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.26%EV -2.40%E -0.559%K -0.728%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-30 15:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.53%EV -4.19%E -1.64%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.21%EV -5.44%E -2.29%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.26%EV -2.40%E -0.559%K -0.728%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-30 15:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.53%EV -4.19%E -1.64%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.21%EV -5.44%E -2.29%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.26%EV -2.40%E -0.559%K -0.728%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-30 15:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.53%EV -4.19%E -1.64%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.21%EV -5.44%E -2.29%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.26%EV -2.40%E -0.559%K -0.728%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-30 15:40
Unibet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -6.07%E -2.43%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.32%EV -7.43%E -3.19%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.10%EV -3.54%E -0.832%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-30 15:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -6.07%E -2.43%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.32%EV -7.43%E -3.19%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.10%EV -3.54%E -0.832%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-30 15:40
Grosvenor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -6.07%E -2.43%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.32%EV -7.43%E -3.19%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.10%EV -3.54%E -0.832%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-30 15:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -6.07%E -2.43%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.31%EV -8.62%E -3.75%K -6.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -6.94%E -1.69%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-30 14:05
1xBet🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 36.88%EV -7.20%E -2.91%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 40.12%EV -9.81%E -4.32%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 23.00%EV -10.12%E -2.56%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-30 14:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 36.88%EV -7.20%E -2.91%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 40.12%EV -9.81%E -4.32%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 23.00%EV -10.12%E -2.56%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-30 16:45
Coolbet🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.67%EV -7.57%E -3.08%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.67%EV -2.26%E -0.919%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -4.67%E -1.11%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-30 15:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 36.87%EV -8.33%E -3.41%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.35%EV -11.40%E -5.11%K -9.27%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.78%EV -10.35%E -2.62%K -3.51%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-30 14:05
TABtouch🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.62%EV -8.70%E -3.58%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.09%EV -9.41%E -4.13%K -7.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.29%EV -6.94%E -1.69%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-30 15:40
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.16%EV -13.59%E -5.91%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.33%EV -6.63%E -2.82%K -4.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.52%EV -9.21%E -2.30%K -3.07%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-30 17:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%5.4%2026-09-30 17:00
NordicBet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%5.4%2026-09-30 17:00
Smarkets◎1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%6.4%2026-09-30 17:00
Pinnacle🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.40%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.60%7.1%2026-09-30 14:01
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%7.6%2026-09-28 19:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%7.6%2026-09-28 19:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%7.6%2026-09-28 19:44
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%7.6%2026-09-28 19:45