The School of Odds
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IK Oskarshamn v Almtuna IS

Kickoff: 2026-10-16 17:00 UTC

Final: IK Oskarshamn 8–2 Almtuna IS

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

IK Oskarshamn (Local)

Prediction 42.95%2.33fair odd
EV -4.65%
Edge -2.09%
Kelly -3.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.81%42.97%42.89%43.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.072.142.142.2248.31%46.64%46.73%45.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Almtuna IS (Visit)

Prediction 34.51%2.90fair odd
EV -3.38%
Edge -1.21%
Kelly -1.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.15%34.48%34.58%34.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.722.752.8038.46%36.75%36.36%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.54%4.44fair odd
EV -1.94%
Edge -0.446%
Kelly -0.579%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.87%22.55%22.53%22.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.204.254.3525.00%23.81%23.53%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: IK Oskarshamn (Local): 42.95%; Almtuna IS (Visit): 34.51%; Draw: 22.54%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.44. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.35, with an expected value of -1.94%; they did not produce positive expected value.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.81%EV -4.65%E -2.09%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.56%EV -5.11%E -1.86%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.63%EV -5.32%E -1.27%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-15 07:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.87%EV -6.37%E -2.92%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.15%EV -3.38%E -1.21%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.98%EV -1.94%E -0.446%K -0.579%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-15 16:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.87%EV -6.37%E -2.92%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.15%EV -3.38%E -1.21%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.98%EV -1.94%E -0.446%K -0.579%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-15 16:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.87%EV -6.37%E -2.92%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.15%EV -3.38%E -1.21%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.98%EV -1.94%E -0.446%K -0.579%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-15 16:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.87%EV -6.37%E -2.92%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.15%EV -3.38%E -1.21%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.98%EV -1.94%E -0.446%K -0.579%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-15 16:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.09%EV -7.65%E -3.56%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.31%EV -6.83%E -2.53%K -4.02%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV -7.57%E -1.85%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-16 14:59
Unibet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.94%EV -8.08%E -3.78%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.19%EV -5.11%E -1.86%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.87%EV -3.07%E -0.713%K -0.929%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-15 16:24
Unibet (NL)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.94%EV -8.08%E -3.78%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.19%EV -5.11%E -1.86%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.87%EV -3.07%E -0.713%K -0.929%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-15 16:25
Grosvenor🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.94%EV -8.08%E -3.78%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.19%EV -5.11%E -1.86%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.87%EV -3.07%E -0.713%K -0.929%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-15 16:24
1xBet🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 43.15%EV -8.51%E -4.00%K -7.53%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 34.16%EV -7.18%E -2.67%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.69%EV -8.70%E -2.15%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-16 16:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 43.21%EV -9.37%E -4.44%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 34.28%EV -8.21%E -3.09%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.51%EV -8.70%E -2.15%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-16 16:25
Codere (IT)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.87%EV -9.80%E -4.67%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.62%EV -10.28%E -3.96%K -6.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.51%EV -9.83%E -2.46%K -3.28%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-16 15:05
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.87%EV -9.80%E -4.67%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.62%EV -10.28%E -3.96%K -6.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.51%EV -9.83%E -2.46%K -3.28%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-15 09:15
TABtouch🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.74%EV -11.09%E -5.36%K -10.37%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.17%EV -8.56%E -3.23%K -5.19%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.09%EV -7.57%E -1.85%K -2.44%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-15 16:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%5.3%2026-10-16 16:29
Betsson🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%5.3%2026-10-16 16:30
Pinnacle🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.91%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.09%7.1%2026-10-16 16:25
Neds🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%7.6%2026-10-15 20:45
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%7.6%2026-10-15 20:48
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%7.6%2026-10-15 20:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%7.6%2026-10-15 20:49
Smarkets◎1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%8.3%2026-10-16 15:00