The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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IK Oskarshamn v AIK

Kickoff: 2026-10-07 17:00 UTC

Final: IK Oskarshamn 3–4 AIK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

IK Oskarshamn (Local)

Prediction 28.27%3.54fair odd
EV +0.630%
Edge +0.177%
Kelly +0.246%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 3.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.76%28.27%27.40%31.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.353.383.5633.33%29.89%29.63%28.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AIK (Visit)

Prediction 50.11%2.00fair odd
EV +2.72%
Edge +1.33%
Kelly +2.59%
Growth +0.070%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.29%50.11%51.00%53.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.911.942.0558.14%52.47%51.68%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.63%4.62fair odd
EV -7.00%
Edge -1.63%
Kelly -2.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.21%21.63%21.60%23.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.154.104.3025.32%24.10%24.39%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: IK Oskarshamn (Local): 28.27%; AIK (Visit): 50.11%; Draw: 21.63%. For AIK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.00. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.72%.

3 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -15.20%E -5.07%K -7.60%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.29%EV +2.72%E +1.33%K +2.59%G +0.070%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.07%EV -7.00%E -1.63%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-05 08:10
Unibet (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.13%EV -3.89%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.55%EV -1.29%E -0.655%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.33%EV -11.33%E -2.76%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-05 12:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.13%EV -3.89%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.55%EV -1.29%E -0.655%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.33%EV -11.33%E -2.76%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-05 12:10
Svenska Spel🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.13%EV -3.89%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.55%EV -1.29%E -0.655%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.33%EV -11.33%E -2.76%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-05 12:10
ATG (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.13%EV -3.89%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.55%EV -1.29%E -0.655%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.33%EV -11.33%E -2.76%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-05 12:09
Unibet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.52%EV -6.72%E -2.04%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.52%EV -2.79%E -1.44%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -11.33%E -2.76%K -3.65%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-05 12:10
Unibet (NL)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -6.72%E -2.04%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.65%EV -3.29%E -1.71%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -11.33%E -2.76%K -3.65%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-05 12:10
Grosvenor🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -6.72%E -2.04%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.65%EV -3.29%E -1.71%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -11.33%E -2.76%K -3.65%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-05 12:10
TABtouch🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.47%EV -9.55%E -2.98%K -4.34%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.46%EV -5.80%E -3.09%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.07%EV -14.57%E -3.69%K -4.94%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-05 10:20
Unibet (UK)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV -5.31%E -1.58%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.00%EV -9.81%E -5.45%K -12.26%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.60%EV -8.09%E -1.90%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-05 12:14
1xBet🎯3.56I 28.09%NM 25.81%EV +0.630%E +0.177%K +0.246%G +0.002%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.81%EV -12.82%E -7.36%K -17.32%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.37%EV -7.00%E -1.63%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-05 12:15
Marathon Bet🎯3.54I 28.25%NM 25.76%EV +0.065%E +0.018%K +0.026%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.03%EV -13.82%E -8.03%K -19.19%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.21%EV -7.00%E -1.63%K -2.12%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-05 12:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (3)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%5.3%2026-10-05 12:15
Betsson🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%5.3%2026-10-05 12:15
Pinnacle🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%7.9%2026-10-04 20:34