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IF Troja-Ljungby v Södertälje SK

Kickoff: 2026-02-23 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

IF Troja-Ljungby (Local)

Prediction 27.19%3.68fair odd
EV +0.602%
Edge +0.163%
Kelly +0.223%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.11%27.14%27.23%27.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.573.703.7030.30%28.04%27.03%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Södertälje SK (Visit)

Prediction 50.66%1.97fair odd
EV -6.28%
Edge -3.39%
Kelly -7.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.91%50.70%50.74%52.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.791.771.8557.80%55.99%56.50%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.15%4.52fair odd
EV -3.65%
Edge -0.840%
Kelly -1.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.85%22.17%22.03%22.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.194.254.3525.00%23.87%23.53%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: IF Troja-Ljungby (Local): 27.19%; Södertälje SK (Visit): 50.66%; Draw: 22.15%. For IF Troja-Ljungby (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.68. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.602%.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV +0.602%E +0.163%K +0.223%G +0.001%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.77%EV -10.33%E -5.84%K -13.41%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.98%EV -5.87%E -1.38%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-23 17:40
Unibet (NL)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV +0.602%E +0.163%K +0.223%G +0.001%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.77%EV -10.33%E -5.84%K -13.41%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.98%EV -5.87%E -1.38%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-23 17:40
Unibet (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV +0.602%E +0.163%K +0.223%G +0.001%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.77%EV -10.33%E -5.84%K -13.41%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.98%EV -5.87%E -1.38%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-23 17:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV +0.602%E +0.163%K +0.223%G +0.001%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.77%EV -10.33%E -5.84%K -13.41%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.98%EV -5.87%E -1.38%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-23 17:40
Grosvenor🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV +0.602%E +0.163%K +0.223%G +0.001%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.77%EV -10.33%E -5.84%K -13.41%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.98%EV -5.87%E -1.38%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-23 17:40
Svenska Spel🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV +0.602%E +0.163%K +0.223%G +0.001%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.77%EV -10.33%E -5.84%K -13.41%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.98%EV -5.87%E -1.38%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-23 17:40
ATG (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV +0.602%E +0.163%K +0.223%G +0.001%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.77%EV -10.33%E -5.84%K -13.41%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.98%EV -5.87%E -1.38%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-23 17:40
LeoVegas🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV +0.602%E +0.163%K +0.223%G +0.001%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.78%EV -10.83%E -6.16%K -14.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -6.98%E -1.66%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-23 16:30
TABtouch🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%EV -2.12%E -0.588%K -0.814%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.56%EV -12.35%E -7.14%K -16.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.18%EV -9.19%E -2.24%K -2.97%G +0.000%10.0%2026-02-23 17:40
Coolbet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.77%EV -3.48%E -0.979%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.38%EV -6.28%E -3.39%K -7.38%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.85%EV -3.65%E -0.840%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-20 05:40
Unibet (UK)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -6.20%E -1.80%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -7.29%E -3.98%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.96%EV -5.87%E -1.38%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-23 15:45
1xBet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41%EV -8.91%E -2.66%K -3.79%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 49.91%EV -6.78%E -3.69%K -8.07%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.68%EV -10.30%E -2.54%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-23 16:44
Marathon Bet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.19%EV -8.91%E -2.66%K -3.79%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.32%EV -8.30%E -4.59%K -10.25%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.49%EV -10.30%E -2.54%K -3.38%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-23 17:54
Betway🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -10.27%E -3.11%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.11%EV -8.81%E -4.89%K -11.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -11.41%E -2.85%K -3.80%G +0.000%10.9%2026-02-23 15:44
Codere (IT)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -10.27%E -3.11%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 50.67%EV -9.82%E -5.52%K -12.59%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.00%EV -9.19%E -2.24%K -2.97%G +0.000%10.9%2026-02-23 15:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.44%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.56%5.2%2026-02-23 16:59
NordicBet🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.44%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.56%5.2%2026-02-23 16:59
Bovada🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%6.3%2026-02-23 17:20
Pinnacle🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.32%1.51I 66.23%NM 61.68%7.4%2026-02-23 17:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%7.6%2026-02-23 08:15
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%7.6%2026-02-23 08:14
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%7.6%2026-02-23 08:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%7.6%2026-02-23 08:15
Smarkets◎2.42I 41.32%NM 38.11%1.49I 67.11%NM 61.89%8.4%2026-02-23 15:45