The School of Odds
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IF Björklöven v Södertälje SK

Kickoff: 2026-04-02 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

IF Björklöven (Local)

Prediction 60.41%1.66fair odd
EV -5.77%
Edge -3.70%
Kelly -10.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.06%60.40%60.41%61.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.531.541.5667.57%65.21%64.94%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Södertälje SK (Visit)

Prediction 19.28%5.19fair odd
EV +5.08%
Edge +0.933%
Kelly +1.14%
Growth +0.058%

assuming max odds 5.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.46%19.14%19.28%20.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.834.805.4522.22%20.69%20.83%18.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.31%4.92fair odd
EV -6.56%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -1.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.03%20.46%20.31%21.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.574.604.6022.22%21.88%21.74%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: IF Björklöven (Local): 60.41%; Södertälje SK (Visit): 19.28%; Draw: 20.31%. For Södertälje SK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.19. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.08%.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.39%EV -6.37%E -4.11%K -11.58%G +0.000%5.45I 18.35%NM 17.46%EV +5.08%E +0.933%K +1.14%G +0.058%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.15%EV -8.60%E -1.91%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-02 12:00
1xBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 61.63%EV -9.99%E -6.71%K -20.40%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.18%EV -2.63%E -0.521%K -0.649%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.18%EV -7.58%E -1.67%K -2.14%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-02 16:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.57%EV -10.60%E -7.16%K -22.08%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.41%EV -4.56%E -0.921%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.03%EV -7.58%E -1.67%K -2.14%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-02 16:00
Unibet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.40%EV -6.97%E -4.53%K -12.91%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.38%EV -7.45%E -1.55%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.22%EV -6.56%E -1.43%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-02 16:00
Grosvenor🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.40%EV -6.97%E -4.53%K -12.91%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.38%EV -7.45%E -1.55%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.22%EV -6.56%E -1.43%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-02 16:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.40%EV -6.97%E -4.53%K -12.91%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.38%EV -7.45%E -1.55%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.22%EV -6.56%E -1.43%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-02 16:00
LeoVegas🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.40%EV -6.97%E -4.53%K -12.91%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.38%EV -7.45%E -1.55%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.22%EV -6.56%E -1.43%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-02 16:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.40%EV -6.97%E -4.53%K -12.91%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.38%EV -7.45%E -1.55%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.22%EV -6.56%E -1.43%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-02 16:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.40%EV -6.97%E -4.53%K -12.91%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.38%EV -7.45%E -1.55%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.22%EV -6.56%E -1.43%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-02 16:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.40%EV -6.97%E -4.53%K -12.91%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.38%EV -7.45%E -1.55%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.22%EV -6.56%E -1.43%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-02 15:59
ATG (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.40%EV -6.97%E -4.53%K -12.91%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.38%EV -7.45%E -1.55%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.22%EV -6.56%E -1.43%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-02 16:00
TABtouch🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.36%EV -8.79%E -5.82%K -17.23%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.39%EV -9.38%E -2.00%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -8.60%E -1.91%K -2.46%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-02 16:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -5.77%E -3.70%K -10.30%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -11.31%E -2.46%K -3.14%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -6.56%E -1.43%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-02 16:00
Betway🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%EV -5.77%E -3.70%K -10.30%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -13.23%E -2.94%K -3.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -8.60%E -1.91%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-02 16:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%6.0%2026-04-02 14:00
Betsson🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%6.0%2026-04-02 14:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%6.9%2026-04-01 23:54
Neds🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%6.9%2026-04-01 23:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%7.5%2026-04-01 23:54
Coral🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%7.5%2026-04-01 23:55
Smarkets◎1.33I 75.19%NM 69.63%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.37%8.0%2026-04-02 16:00
Pinnacle🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.74%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.26%8.9%2026-04-02 10:00