Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

IF Björklöven v Mora IK

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

IF Björklöven (Local)

Prediction 63.05%1.59fair odd
EV -6.05%
Edge -4.06%
Kelly -12.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.18%63.37%62.88%65.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.471.491.4969.93%68.03%67.11%67.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mora IK (Visit)

Prediction 17.56%5.69fair odd
EV +0.997%
Edge +0.173%
Kelly +0.210%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 5.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.53%17.44%17.73%18.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.805.105.005.7520.83%19.61%20.00%17.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.38%5.16fair odd
EV +2.74%
Edge +0.516%
Kelly +0.636%
Growth +0.017%

assuming max odds 5.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.93%19.19%19.39%19.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.895.005.3022.22%20.44%20.00%18.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: IF Björklöven (Local): 63.05%; Mora IK (Visit): 17.56%; Draw: 19.38%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.16. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.74%.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.54%EV -8.58%E -5.91%K -19.06%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.53%EV +0.997%E +0.173%K +0.210%G +0.002%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.93%EV +2.74%E +0.516%K +0.636%G +0.017%5.2%2026-02-28 07:14
Unibet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.66%EV -6.05%E -4.06%K -12.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -12.18%E -2.44%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -3.08%E -0.616%K -0.770%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 11:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.66%EV -6.05%E -4.06%K -12.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -12.18%E -2.44%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -3.08%E -0.616%K -0.770%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 11:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.66%EV -6.05%E -4.06%K -12.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -12.18%E -2.44%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -3.08%E -0.616%K -0.770%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 11:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.66%EV -6.05%E -4.06%K -12.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -12.18%E -2.44%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -3.08%E -0.616%K -0.770%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 11:00
Grosvenor🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.66%EV -6.05%E -4.06%K -12.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -12.18%E -2.44%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -3.08%E -0.616%K -0.770%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 11:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.66%EV -6.05%E -4.06%K -12.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -12.18%E -2.44%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -3.08%E -0.616%K -0.770%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 10:59
Svenska Spel🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.66%EV -6.05%E -4.06%K -12.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -12.18%E -2.44%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -3.08%E -0.616%K -0.770%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 11:00
LeoVegas🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.18%EV -6.05%E -4.06%K -12.35%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.91%EV -13.93%E -2.84%K -3.57%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.91%EV -5.02%E -1.02%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-28 11:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.88%EV -6.68%E -4.52%K -13.93%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -7.79%E -1.48%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.39%EV -6.96%E -1.45%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-01 15:19
TABtouch🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.34%EV -8.58%E -5.91%K -19.06%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.83%EV -15.69%E -3.27%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.83%EV -6.96%E -1.45%K -1.83%G +0.000%10.6%2026-02-28 11:00
1xBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.80%EV -9.21%E -6.39%K -20.92%G +0.000%5.45I 18.35%NM 16.86%EV -4.27%E -0.784%K -0.960%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.34%EV -7.93%E -1.67%K -2.11%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-01 15:19
Marathon Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.76%EV -9.84%E -6.88%K -22.88%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.04%EV -6.03%E -1.13%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.20%EV -7.93%E -1.67%K -2.11%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-01 15:20
Codere (IT)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.46%EV -9.21%E -6.39%K -20.92%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.99%EV -12.18%E -2.44%K -3.04%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -10.83%E -2.36%K -3.01%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-01 15:20
Betway🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.19%EV -9.21%E -6.39%K -20.92%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -12.18%E -2.44%K -3.04%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -12.77%E -2.84%K -3.65%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-01 15:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.30%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.70%5.6%2026-03-01 15:19
Betsson🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.30%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.70%5.6%2026-03-01 15:20
Bovada🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%6.6%2026-03-01 15:17
Smarkets1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%8.2%2026-03-01 15:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%8.6%2026-02-28 17:25
Coral🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%8.6%2026-02-28 17:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%8.6%2026-02-28 17:25
Neds🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%8.6%2026-02-28 17:24
Pinnacle🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.63%3.49I 28.65%NM 26.37%8.7%2026-03-01 15:20