The School of Odds
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IF Björklöven v BIK Karlskoga

Kickoff: 2026-04-17 17:05 UTC

Final: IF Björklöven 4–2 BIK Karlskoga

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

IF Björklöven (Local)

Prediction 59.68%1.68fair odd
EV -0.338%
Edge -0.202%
Kelly -0.504%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.99%59.68%60.07%62.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.591.621.6768.03%62.95%61.73%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

BIK Karlskoga (Visit)

Prediction 19.53%5.12fair odd
EV -0.420%
Edge -0.082%
Kelly -0.102%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.00%19.53%18.97%21.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.254.524.405.1023.53%22.13%22.73%19.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.80%4.81fair odd
EV -4.34%
Edge -0.943%
Kelly -1.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.80%20.80%20.96%21.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.254.414.404.6023.53%22.67%22.73%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: IF Björklöven (Local): 59.68%; BIK Karlskoga (Visit): 19.53%; Draw: 20.80%. For IF Björklöven (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.68. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.67, with an expected value of -0.338%; they did not produce positive expected value.

7 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.99%EV -0.338%E -0.202%K -0.504%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.39%EV -13.11%E -2.95%K -3.80%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.63%EV -8.50%E -1.93%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-17 16:58
Unibet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -3.32%E -2.05%K -5.36%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -14.09%E -3.20%K -4.14%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -8.50%E -1.93%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-17 17:00
Grosvenor🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -3.32%E -2.05%K -5.36%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -14.09%E -3.20%K -4.14%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -8.50%E -1.93%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-17 17:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -3.32%E -2.05%K -5.36%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -14.09%E -3.20%K -4.14%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -8.50%E -1.93%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-17 17:00
LeoVegas🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -3.32%E -2.05%K -5.36%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -14.09%E -3.20%K -4.14%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -8.50%E -1.93%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-17 17:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -3.32%E -2.05%K -5.36%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -14.09%E -3.20%K -4.14%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -8.50%E -1.93%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-17 17:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -3.32%E -2.05%K -5.36%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -14.09%E -3.20%K -4.14%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -8.50%E -1.93%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-17 16:59
ATG (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -3.32%E -2.05%K -5.36%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -14.09%E -3.20%K -4.14%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -8.50%E -1.93%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-17 16:59
Svenska Spel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -3.32%E -2.05%K -5.36%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -14.09%E -3.20%K -4.14%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -8.50%E -1.93%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-17 17:00
TABtouch🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.51%EV -6.31%E -4.02%K -11.06%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.24%EV -17.02%E -4.00%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.24%EV -11.61%E -2.73%K -3.57%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-17 16:59
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.07%EV -10.48%E -6.99%K -20.97%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.97%EV -7.25%E -1.53%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.96%EV -10.58%E -2.46%K -3.20%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-17 17:00
1xBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.04%EV -11.68%E -7.89%K -24.33%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.00%EV -0.420%E -0.082%K -0.102%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.96%EV -4.34%E -0.943%K -1.20%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-17 16:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.97%EV -12.27%E -8.35%K -26.11%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -2.37%E -0.474%K -0.593%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.80%EV -4.34%E -0.943%K -1.20%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-17 16:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (7)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.99%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.01%5.0%2026-04-17 17:00
NordicBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.99%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.01%5.0%2026-04-17 16:59
Coral🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%7.4%2026-04-17 17:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%7.4%2026-04-17 16:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%7.4%2026-04-17 17:00
Neds🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%7.4%2026-04-17 16:59
Pinnacle🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.50%3.03I 33.00%NM 30.50%8.2%2026-04-17 16:59