The School of Odds
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IF Björklöven v BIK Karlskoga

Kickoff: 2026-04-15 17:00 UTC

Final: IF Björklöven 4–2 BIK Karlskoga

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

IF Björklöven (Local)

Prediction 56.86%1.76fair odd
EV -4.47%
Edge -2.66%
Kelly -6.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.23%57.07%56.86%58.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.651.681.6863.29%60.45%59.52%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

BIK Karlskoga (Visit)

Prediction 21.87%4.57fair odd
EV +2.80%
Edge +0.596%
Kelly +0.757%
Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.24%21.65%21.87%23.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.164.104.7025.32%24.07%24.39%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.27%4.70fair odd
EV -5.36%
Edge -1.21%
Kelly -1.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.18%21.28%21.27%21.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.304.304.4523.81%23.26%23.26%22.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: IF Björklöven (Local): 56.86%; BIK Karlskoga (Visit): 21.87%; Draw: 21.27%. For BIK Karlskoga (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.57. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.80%.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.37%EV -7.32%E -4.49%K -11.61%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.24%EV +2.80%E +0.596%K +0.757%G +0.021%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.38%EV -5.36%E -1.21%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-15 16:20
1xBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.39%EV -9.02%E -5.64%K -15.04%G +0.000%4.32I 23.15%NM 21.26%EV -5.51%E -1.28%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.35%EV -8.55%E -1.99%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-15 14:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.64%EV -10.16%E -6.43%K -17.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.18%EV -5.95%E -1.38%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.18%EV -8.55%E -1.99%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-15 14:45
Unibet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.54%EV -4.47%E -2.66%K -6.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -10.32%E -2.52%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -8.55%E -1.99%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-14 19:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.54%EV -4.47%E -2.66%K -6.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -10.32%E -2.52%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -8.55%E -1.99%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-14 19:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.54%EV -4.47%E -2.66%K -6.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -10.32%E -2.52%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -8.55%E -1.99%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-14 19:00
Grosvenor🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.54%EV -4.47%E -2.66%K -6.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -10.32%E -2.52%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -8.55%E -1.99%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-14 18:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.54%EV -4.47%E -2.66%K -6.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -10.32%E -2.52%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -8.55%E -1.99%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-14 18:59
Svenska Spel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.54%EV -4.47%E -2.66%K -6.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -10.32%E -2.52%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -8.55%E -1.99%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-14 19:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.54%EV -4.47%E -2.66%K -6.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -10.32%E -2.52%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -8.55%E -1.99%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-14 18:59
LeoVegas🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.40%EV -4.47%E -2.66%K -6.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -10.32%E -2.52%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.90%EV -9.62%E -2.26%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-14 18:59
Unibet (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.12%EV -6.18%E -3.75%K -9.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.59%EV -10.32%E -2.52%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.29%EV -7.49%E -1.72%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-15 08:20
Betway🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.14%EV -8.45%E -5.25%K -13.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.60%EV -12.51%E -3.13%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.27%EV -9.62%E -2.26%K -2.96%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-14 19:00
TABtouch🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.23%EV -6.18%E -3.75%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.07%EV -13.60%E -3.44%K -4.61%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -10.68%E -2.54%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-14 18:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.96%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.04%5.1%2026-04-15 16:20
Betsson🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.96%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.04%5.1%2026-04-15 16:20
Pinnacle🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.46%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.54%8.2%2026-04-14 19:00
Smarkets◎1.38I 72.46%NM 66.83%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.17%8.4%2026-04-15 05:05
Coral🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%8.6%2026-04-15 03:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%8.6%2026-04-15 03:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%8.6%2026-04-15 03:15
Neds🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%8.6%2026-04-15 03:15