The School of Odds
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BIK Karlskoga v Visby/Roma HK

Kickoff: 2026-10-23 17:02 UTC

Final: BIK Karlskoga 3–1 Visby/Roma HK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

BIK Karlskoga (Local)

Prediction 61.17%1.63fair odd
EV -7.02%
Edge -4.62%
Kelly -13.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.00%61.26%61.22%64.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.411.481.491.5270.92%67.60%67.11%65.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Visby/Roma HK (Visit)

Prediction 19.37%5.16fair odd
EV +4.59%
Edge +0.849%
Kelly +1.04%
Growth +0.048%

assuming max odds 5.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.65%19.29%19.39%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.095.255.4022.22%19.64%19.05%18.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.46%5.14fair odd
EV +5.09%
Edge +0.943%
Kelly +1.16%
Growth +0.059%

assuming max odds 5.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.78%19.45%19.39%20.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.075.175.4022.22%19.73%19.32%18.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: BIK Karlskoga (Local): 61.17%; Visby/Roma HK (Visit): 19.37%; Draw: 19.46%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.14. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.09%.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -8.86%E -5.94%K -18.07%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.78%EV +4.59%E +0.849%K +1.04%G +0.048%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.78%EV +5.09%E +0.943%K +1.16%G +0.059%4.2%2026-10-21 21:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -8.86%E -5.94%K -18.07%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.78%EV +4.59%E +0.849%K +1.04%G +0.048%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.78%EV +5.09%E +0.943%K +1.16%G +0.059%4.2%2026-10-21 21:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -8.86%E -5.94%K -18.07%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.78%EV +4.59%E +0.849%K +1.04%G +0.048%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.78%EV +5.09%E +0.943%K +1.16%G +0.059%4.2%2026-10-21 21:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -8.86%E -5.94%K -18.07%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.78%EV +4.59%E +0.849%K +1.04%G +0.048%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.78%EV +5.09%E +0.943%K +1.16%G +0.059%4.2%2026-10-21 21:20
Unibet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.37%EV -10.69%E -7.32%K -23.24%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.73%EV +2.65%E +0.500%K +0.616%G +0.016%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.90%EV +2.17%E +0.414%K +0.511%G +0.011%6.4%2026-10-21 21:20
Grosvenor🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.53%EV -11.30%E -7.79%K -25.12%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.65%EV +2.65%E +0.500%K +0.616%G +0.016%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV +2.17%E +0.414%K +0.511%G +0.011%6.9%2026-10-21 21:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.53%EV -11.30%E -7.79%K -25.12%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.65%EV +2.65%E +0.500%K +0.616%G +0.016%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV +2.17%E +0.414%K +0.511%G +0.011%6.9%2026-10-21 21:20
TABtouch🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.39%EV -13.75%E -9.75%K -33.54%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.80%EV -1.22%E -0.240%K -0.298%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.80%EV -0.746%E -0.146%K -0.182%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-21 21:20
Coolbet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.64%EV -7.02%E -4.62%K -13.50%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.31%EV +0.713%E +0.137%K +0.170%G +0.001%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.04%EV -2.69%E -0.538%K -0.673%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-23 14:30
1xBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.08%EV -9.47%E -6.40%K -19.72%G +0.000%4.84I 20.66%NM 18.98%EV -6.26%E -1.29%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 18.94%EV -5.61%E -1.16%K -1.46%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-23 11:01
Marathon Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.01%EV -10.08%E -6.86%K -21.45%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.19%EV -8.00%E -1.68%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 18.80%EV -5.61%E -1.16%K -1.46%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-23 11:01
Unibet (UK)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.22%EV -7.02%E -4.62%K -13.50%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.39%EV -7.03%E -1.47%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.39%EV -6.58%E -1.37%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-22 17:09
Codere (IT)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.42%EV -8.86%E -5.94%K -18.07%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.57%EV -10.91%E -2.37%K -3.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.01%EV -12.42%E -2.76%K -3.55%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-21 21:20
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.00%EV -8.24%E -5.50%K -16.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -12.84%E -2.85%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -12.42%E -2.76%K -3.55%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-22 12:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.52%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.48%5.0%2026-10-23 14:43
NordicBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.52%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.48%5.0%2026-10-23 14:43
Neds🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%6.9%2026-10-22 15:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%6.9%2026-10-22 15:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%7.5%2026-10-22 15:40
Coral🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%7.5%2026-10-22 15:39
Smarkets◎1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%8.2%2026-10-23 05:05
Pinnacle🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 70.43%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.57%8.4%2026-10-23 11:05