Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

BIK Karlskoga v Västerås IK

Kickoff: 2026-09-19 16:00 UTC

Final: BIK Karlskoga 3–2 Västerås IK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

BIK Karlskoga (Local)

Prediction 57.82%1.73fair odd
EV -2.85%
Edge -1.70%
Kelly -4.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.67%58.35%57.43%61.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.601.621.6867.57%62.47%61.73%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Västerås IK (Visit)

Prediction 21.62%4.62fair odd
EV +5.73%
Edge +1.17%
Kelly +1.47%
Growth +0.085%

assuming max odds 4.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.79%21.25%21.89%22.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.494.504.8924.39%22.28%22.22%20.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.55%4.87fair odd
EV -3.40%
Edge -0.724%
Kelly -0.920%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.40%20.40%20.68%20.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.534.534.7023.26%22.08%22.10%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: BIK Karlskoga (Local): 57.82%; Västerås IK (Visit): 21.62%; Draw: 20.55%. For Västerås IK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.62. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.89, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.73%.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.24%EV -13.26%E -8.84%K -26.53%G +0.000%4.89I 20.45%NM 18.79%EV +5.73%E +1.17%K +1.47%G +0.085%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.97%EV -5.46%E -1.19%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-19 15:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.61%EV -14.42%E -9.74%K -30.04%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.00%EV +3.79%E +0.789%K +0.997%G +0.038%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.40%EV -3.40%E -0.724%K -0.920%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-19 15:58
Unibet (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.59%E -2.78%K -7.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.89%EV -0.536%E -0.117%K -0.149%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.89%EV -5.46%E -1.19%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-19 14:01
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.59%E -2.78%K -7.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.89%EV -0.536%E -0.117%K -0.149%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.89%EV -5.46%E -1.19%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-19 14:01
ATG (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.59%E -2.78%K -7.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.89%EV -0.536%E -0.117%K -0.149%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.89%EV -5.46%E -1.19%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-19 14:01
Svenska Spel🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.59%E -2.78%K -7.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.89%EV -0.536%E -0.117%K -0.149%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.89%EV -5.46%E -1.19%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-19 14:01
Unibet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.32%E -3.90%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -2.70%E -0.600%K -0.771%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -7.51%E -1.67%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-19 14:01
Unibet (NL)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.32%E -3.90%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -2.70%E -0.600%K -0.771%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -7.51%E -1.67%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-19 14:01
Grosvenor🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.32%E -3.90%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -2.70%E -0.600%K -0.771%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -7.51%E -1.67%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-19 14:01
TABtouch🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.23%EV -9.79%E -6.28%K -17.49%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.88%EV -5.94%E -1.37%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.88%EV -10.60%E -2.44%K -3.16%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-19 14:01
Betway🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.97%EV -11.53%E -7.53%K -21.75%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.98%EV -7.02%E -1.63%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.05%EV -7.51%E -1.67%K -2.15%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-19 15:59
Coolbet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.67%EV -2.85%E -1.70%K -4.20%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.40%EV -8.10%E -1.91%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.93%EV -6.49%E -1.43%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-19 14:01
Unibet (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.43%EV -6.32%E -3.90%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.89%EV -8.10%E -1.91%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -7.51%E -1.67%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-19 15:02
Codere (IT)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.05%EV -8.64%E -5.47%K -14.89%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.99%EV -11.35%E -2.77%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.96%EV -11.62%E -2.70%K -3.52%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-19 15:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.99%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.01%5.0%2026-09-19 14:01
NordicBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.41%3.01I 33.22%NM 31.59%5.2%2026-09-19 15:59
Coral🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%7.4%2026-09-19 14:01
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%7.4%2026-09-19 14:01
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%7.4%2026-09-19 14:01
Neds🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%7.4%2026-09-19 14:01
Smarkets◎1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%8.3%2026-09-19 15:02
Pinnacle🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.27%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%8.8%2026-09-19 14:56