The School of Odds
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BIK Karlskoga v Mora IK

Kickoff: 2026-10-07 17:00 UTC

Final: BIK Karlskoga 1–3 Mora IK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

BIK Karlskoga (Local)

Prediction 55.87%1.79fair odd
EV -2.22%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -2.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.77%55.87%55.91%56.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.631.701.711.7561.35%58.77%58.48%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mora IK (Visit)

Prediction 23.04%4.34fair odd
EV -3.21%
Edge -0.765%
Kelly -1.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.71%23.04%22.90%24.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.913.904.2027.03%25.57%25.64%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.08%4.74fair odd
EV -0.920%
Edge -0.196%
Kelly -0.249%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.45%21.08%21.19%21.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.544.604.7023.26%22.02%21.74%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: BIK Karlskoga (Local): 55.87%; Mora IK (Visit): 23.04%; Draw: 21.08%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.74. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.70, with an expected value of -0.920%; they did not produce positive expected value.

3 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.91%EV -2.22%E -1.27%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.64%EV -10.13%E -2.60%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.45%EV -0.920%E -0.196%K -0.249%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-05 10:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.91%EV -2.22%E -1.27%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.64%EV -10.13%E -2.60%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.45%EV -0.920%E -0.196%K -0.249%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-05 10:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.91%EV -2.22%E -1.27%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.64%EV -10.13%E -2.60%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.45%EV -0.920%E -0.196%K -0.249%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-05 10:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.91%EV -2.22%E -1.27%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.64%EV -10.13%E -2.60%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.45%EV -0.920%E -0.196%K -0.249%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-05 10:49
Unibet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.07%EV -4.45%E -2.60%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.46%EV -11.28%E -2.93%K -3.96%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -3.03%E -0.658%K -0.841%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-05 10:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.07%EV -4.45%E -2.60%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.46%EV -11.28%E -2.93%K -3.96%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -3.03%E -0.658%K -0.841%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-05 10:45
Grosvenor🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.07%EV -4.45%E -2.60%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.46%EV -11.28%E -2.93%K -3.96%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -3.03%E -0.658%K -0.841%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-05 10:49
Coolbet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.10%EV -5.01%E -2.95%K -7.16%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.71%EV -3.21%E -0.765%K -1.00%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -5.14%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-04 22:10
TABtouch🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.77%EV -7.25%E -4.37%K -10.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.57%EV -14.73%E -3.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -7.24%E -1.65%K -2.13%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-05 10:45
1xBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.67%EV -7.81%E -4.73%K -12.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -7.82%E -1.96%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.36%EV -9.35%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-05 14:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.61%EV -7.81%E -4.73%K -12.01%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -10.13%E -2.60%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -7.24%E -1.65%K -2.13%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-05 13:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.91%EV -8.92%E -5.48%K -14.17%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 22.90%EV -8.28%E -2.08%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.19%EV -9.35%E -2.18%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-05 14:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (3)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.64%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.36%5.1%2026-10-05 10:40
Betsson🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.64%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.36%5.1%2026-10-05 10:39
Pinnacle🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 66.51%2.76I 36.23%NM 33.49%8.2%2026-10-04 21:10