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BIK Karlskoga v Leksands IF

Kickoff: 2026-10-02 17:00 UTC

Final: BIK Karlskoga 4–5 Leksands IF

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

BIK Karlskoga (Local)

Prediction 34.51%2.90fair odd
EV +3.53%
Edge +1.18%
Kelly +1.77%
Growth +0.062%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.90%34.51%34.58%35.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.832.903.0038.46%35.33%34.48%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Leksands IF (Visit)

Prediction 42.86%2.33fair odd
EV -3.56%
Edge -1.58%
Kelly -2.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.92%42.86%42.84%45.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.112.102.2550.00%47.49%47.62%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.62%4.42fair odd
EV -2.71%
Edge -0.631%
Kelly -0.822%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.28%22.63%22.58%23.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.154.204.3025.32%24.08%23.81%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: BIK Karlskoga (Local): 34.51%; Leksands IF (Visit): 42.86%; Draw: 22.62%. For BIK Karlskoga (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.90. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.53%.

6 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.99%EV +3.53%E +1.18%K +1.77%G +0.062%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.70%EV -9.99%E -4.76%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.32%EV -2.71%E -0.631%K -0.822%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-02 16:25
ATG (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.99%EV +3.53%E +1.18%K +1.77%G +0.062%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.70%EV -9.99%E -4.76%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.32%EV -2.71%E -0.631%K -0.822%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-02 16:25
Svenska Spel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.99%EV +3.53%E +1.18%K +1.77%G +0.062%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.70%EV -9.99%E -4.76%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.32%EV -2.71%E -0.631%K -0.822%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-02 16:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.99%EV +3.53%E +1.18%K +1.77%G +0.062%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.70%EV -9.99%E -4.76%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.32%EV -2.71%E -0.631%K -0.822%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-02 16:24
Unibet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.90%EV +1.81%E +0.613%K +0.928%G +0.017%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.69%EV -11.70%E -5.68%K -11.04%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -4.98%E -1.18%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-02 16:20
Grosvenor🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.90%EV +1.81%E +0.613%K +0.928%G +0.017%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.69%EV -11.70%E -5.68%K -11.04%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -4.98%E -1.18%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-02 16:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.90%EV +1.81%E +0.613%K +0.928%G +0.017%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.69%EV -11.70%E -5.68%K -11.04%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -4.98%E -1.18%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-02 16:20
TABtouch🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.05%EV -1.64%E -0.576%K -0.888%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.67%EV -14.27%E -7.14%K -14.27%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.28%EV -7.24%E -1.77%K -2.33%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-02 16:20
Coolbet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.27%EV -6.82%E -2.53%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.32%EV -3.56%E -1.58%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.41%EV -3.84%E -0.904%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-30 21:09
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.31%EV -6.82%E -2.53%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.09%EV -7.84%E -3.65%K -6.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV -7.24%E -1.77%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-02 16:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.74%EV -6.82%E -2.53%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.38%EV -9.99%E -4.76%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 22.89%EV -9.95%E -2.50%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-02 16:50
1xBet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.90%EV -9.23%E -3.51%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 41.92%EV -6.13%E -2.80%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 23.18%EV -10.41%E -2.63%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-02 16:43
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.62%EV -10.27%E -3.95%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.87%EV -9.99%E -4.76%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.51%EV -9.50%E -2.38%K -3.17%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-02 16:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.60%EV -10.27%E -3.95%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 42.63%EV -9.56%E -4.53%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.77%EV -10.63%E -2.69%K -3.60%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-02 16:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (6)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%5.2%2026-10-02 16:55
NordicBet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%5.2%2026-10-02 16:55
Pinnacle🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%6.9%2026-10-02 16:55
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%7.6%2026-10-01 08:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%7.6%2026-10-01 08:35
Smarkets◎1.99I 50.25%NM 46.07%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.93%9.1%2026-10-02 16:50