The School of Odds
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Almtuna IS v Visby/Roma HK

Kickoff: 2026-10-07 17:00 UTC

Final: Almtuna IS 3–1 Visby/Roma HK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Almtuna IS (Local)

Prediction 61.75%1.62fair odd
EV -5.53%
Edge -3.61%
Kelly -10.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.02%61.75%60.84%64.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.481.491.5370.42%67.49%67.11%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Visby/Roma HK (Visit)

Prediction 18.70%5.35fair odd
EV +6.61%
Edge +1.16%
Kelly +1.41%
Growth +0.093%

assuming max odds 5.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.69%18.70%19.47%20.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.545.325.505.7022.03%18.80%18.18%17.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.55%5.12fair odd
EV -0.294%
Edge -0.058%
Kelly -0.072%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.67%19.55%19.68%20.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.604.925.005.1021.74%20.30%20.00%19.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Almtuna IS (Local): 61.75%; Visby/Roma HK (Visit): 18.70%; Draw: 19.55%. For Visby/Roma HK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.35. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.61%.

3 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.28%EV -8.62%E -5.82%K -17.95%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.69%EV +6.61%E +1.16%K +1.41%G +0.093%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.03%EV -2.25%E -0.450%K -0.562%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-04 20:39
Unibet (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.18%EV -8.00%E -5.37%K -16.32%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.08%EV +4.74%E +0.847%K +1.03%G +0.049%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.75%EV -0.294%E -0.058%K -0.072%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-05 12:01
Svenska Spel🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.18%EV -8.00%E -5.37%K -16.32%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.08%EV +4.74%E +0.847%K +1.03%G +0.049%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.75%EV -0.294%E -0.058%K -0.072%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-05 12:01
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.18%EV -8.00%E -5.37%K -16.32%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.08%EV +4.74%E +0.847%K +1.03%G +0.049%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.75%EV -0.294%E -0.058%K -0.072%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-05 12:01
ATG (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.18%EV -8.00%E -5.37%K -16.32%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.08%EV +4.74%E +0.847%K +1.03%G +0.049%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.75%EV -0.294%E -0.058%K -0.072%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-05 12:05
Unibet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.21%EV -9.85%E -6.75%K -21.42%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV +2.87%E +0.522%K +0.638%G +0.018%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.75%EV -2.25%E -0.450%K -0.562%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-05 12:01
Unibet (NL)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.37%EV -10.47%E -7.22%K -23.26%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.97%EV +2.87%E +0.522%K +0.638%G +0.018%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -2.25%E -0.450%K -0.562%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-05 12:05
Grosvenor🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.37%EV -10.47%E -7.22%K -23.26%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.97%EV +2.87%E +0.522%K +0.638%G +0.018%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -2.25%E -0.450%K -0.562%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-05 12:05
TABtouch🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.15%EV -12.32%E -8.68%K -29.34%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.87%EV +1.00%E +0.186%K +0.228%G +0.002%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.98%EV -6.16%E -1.28%K -1.62%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-05 12:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.59%EV -6.15%E -4.04%K -11.82%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -11.15%E -2.35%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -10.07%E -2.19%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-05 12:01
Marathon Bet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.36%EV -6.76%E -4.48%K -13.26%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.03%EV -14.90%E -3.27%K -4.20%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.60%EV -9.09%E -1.96%K -2.49%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-04 20:49
1xBet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.02%EV -5.53%E -3.61%K -10.43%G +0.000%4.54I 22.03%NM 20.23%EV -15.08%E -3.32%K -4.26%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.75%EV -9.09%E -1.96%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-04 20:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (3)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.98%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.02%5.1%2026-10-04 20:50
NordicBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.98%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.02%5.1%2026-10-04 20:50
Pinnacle🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.05%2.99I 33.44%NM 30.95%8.1%2026-10-04 20:40