The School of Odds
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Almtuna IS v Vimmerby HC

Kickoff: 2026-10-23 17:00 UTC

Final: Almtuna IS 1–6 Vimmerby HC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Almtuna IS (Local)

Prediction 47.44%2.11fair odd
EV -6.55%
Edge -3.33%
Kelly -6.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.56%47.82%47.11%51.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.761.871.851.9756.82%53.60%54.05%50.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Vimmerby HC (Visit)

Prediction 30.54%3.27fair odd
EV +5.37%
Edge +1.56%
Kelly +2.19%
Growth +0.118%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.59%30.18%30.94%31.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.263.403.4535.09%30.67%29.41%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.02%4.54fair odd
EV +3.50%
Edge +0.745%
Kelly +0.946%
Growth +0.033%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.40%22.00%21.96%22.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.424.504.7025.00%22.60%22.22%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Almtuna IS (Local): 47.44%; Vimmerby HC (Visit): 30.54%; Draw: 22.02%. For Vimmerby HC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.27. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.37%.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.82%EV -12.24%E -6.62%K -14.40%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.79%EV +5.37%E +1.56%K +2.19%G +0.118%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.40%EV +3.50%E +0.745%K +0.946%G +0.033%4.3%2026-10-21 21:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.82%EV -12.24%E -6.62%K -14.40%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.79%EV +5.37%E +1.56%K +2.19%G +0.118%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.40%EV +3.50%E +0.745%K +0.946%G +0.033%4.3%2026-10-21 21:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.82%EV -12.24%E -6.62%K -14.40%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.79%EV +5.37%E +1.56%K +2.19%G +0.118%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.40%EV +3.50%E +0.745%K +0.946%G +0.033%4.3%2026-10-21 21:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.82%EV -12.24%E -6.62%K -14.40%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.79%EV +5.37%E +1.56%K +2.19%G +0.118%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.40%EV +3.50%E +0.745%K +0.946%G +0.033%4.3%2026-10-21 21:15
Coolbet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.24%EV -9.87%E -5.20%K -10.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.07%EV +3.85%E +1.13%K +1.60%G +0.062%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.69%EV -3.11%E -0.706%K -0.913%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-23 14:26
Unibet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.79%EV -13.67%E -7.51%K -16.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV +3.85%E +1.13%K +1.60%G +0.062%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.49%EV +1.30%E +0.282%K +0.361%G +0.005%6.1%2026-10-22 10:05
Grosvenor🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.79%EV -13.67%E -7.51%K -16.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV +3.85%E +1.13%K +1.60%G +0.062%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.49%EV +1.30%E +0.282%K +0.361%G +0.005%6.1%2026-10-22 10:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.79%EV -13.67%E -7.51%K -16.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV +3.85%E +1.13%K +1.60%G +0.062%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.49%EV +1.30%E +0.282%K +0.361%G +0.005%6.1%2026-10-22 10:05
TABtouch🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.72%EV -16.51%E -9.38%K -21.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV +0.791%E +0.240%K +0.344%G +0.003%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.69%EV -3.11%E -0.706%K -0.913%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-22 10:05
1xBet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.08%EV -9.40%E -4.92%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 29.53%EV -5.01%E -1.61%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -9.71%E -2.37%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-23 14:43
Marathon Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.20%EV -10.35%E -5.47%K -11.62%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 29.58%EV -5.93%E -1.92%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.22%EV -9.71%E -2.37%K -3.13%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-23 14:43
Unibet (UK)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.17%EV -6.55%E -3.33%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -8.37%E -2.79%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%EV -6.41%E -1.51%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-23 11:52
Codere (IT)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.94%EV -8.92%E -4.65%K -9.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.08%EV -11.43%E -3.94%K -6.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.98%EV -9.71%E -2.37%K -3.13%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-23 11:59
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.56%EV -9.40%E -4.92%K -10.33%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.20%EV -12.95%E -4.55%K -7.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.23%EV -11.91%E -2.98%K -3.97%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-23 11:51
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%5.2%2026-10-23 14:43
NordicBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%5.2%2026-10-23 14:43
Neds🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%7.2%2026-10-23 11:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%7.2%2026-10-23 11:40
Pinnacle🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.85%2.21I 45.25%NM 42.15%7.4%2026-10-23 14:43
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%7.6%2026-10-23 11:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%7.6%2026-10-23 11:35
Smarkets◎1.58I 63.29%NM 58.42%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.58%8.3%2026-10-23 11:52