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Almtuna IS v Västerås IK

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 13:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Almtuna IS (Local)

Prediction 41.41%2.42fair odd
EV -6.83%
Edge -3.04%
Kelly -5.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.10%41.88%41.48%44.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.122.182.172.2547.17%45.87%46.08%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Västerås IK (Visit)

Prediction 34.88%2.87fair odd
EV -0.599%
Edge -0.210%
Kelly -0.324%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.38%34.61%34.85%35.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.652.652.8539.22%37.72%37.74%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.71%4.22fair odd
EV +0.789%
Edge +0.186%
Kelly +0.243%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.92%23.51%23.67%24.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.074.254.2526.67%24.55%23.53%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Almtuna IS (Local): 41.41%; Västerås IK (Visit): 34.88%; Draw: 23.71%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.22. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.789%.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.24%EV -10.97%E -5.10%K -9.54%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.38%EV -0.599%E -0.210%K -0.324%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.38%EV +0.789%E +0.186%K +0.243%G +0.002%5.1%2026-02-27 23:19
Unibet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.93%EV -10.15%E -4.68%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.15%EV -7.57%E -2.86%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.92%EV +0.789%E +0.186%K +0.243%G +0.002%7.3%2026-02-27 23:59
Unibet (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.93%EV -10.15%E -4.68%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.15%EV -7.57%E -2.86%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.92%EV +0.789%E +0.186%K +0.243%G +0.002%7.3%2026-02-27 23:59
Unibet (NL)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.93%EV -10.15%E -4.68%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.15%EV -7.57%E -2.86%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.92%EV +0.789%E +0.186%K +0.243%G +0.002%7.3%2026-02-27 23:59
LeoVegas🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.93%EV -10.15%E -4.68%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.15%EV -7.57%E -2.86%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.92%EV +0.789%E +0.186%K +0.243%G +0.002%7.3%2026-02-27 23:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.93%EV -10.15%E -4.68%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.15%EV -7.57%E -2.86%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.92%EV +0.789%E +0.186%K +0.243%G +0.002%7.3%2026-02-27 23:59
Grosvenor🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.93%EV -10.15%E -4.68%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.15%EV -7.57%E -2.86%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.92%EV +0.789%E +0.186%K +0.243%G +0.002%7.3%2026-02-27 23:59
TABtouch🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.87%EV -12.22%E -5.76%K -10.91%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.96%EV -9.32%E -3.58%K -5.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.17%EV -2.77%E -0.675%K -0.893%G +0.000%10.0%2026-02-27 23:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.47%EV -6.83%E -3.04%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -7.57%E -2.86%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -5.14%E -1.29%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-28 13:11
Codere (IT)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.18%EV -9.73%E -4.46%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.20%EV -11.06%E -4.34%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.62%EV -9.88%E -2.60%K -3.53%G +0.000%11.4%2026-02-28 06:49
1xBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.34%EV -8.08%E -3.64%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 34.38%EV -6.88%E -2.58%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.28%EV -10.36%E -2.74%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-28 08:14
Marathon Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.40%EV -8.90%E -4.05%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 34.50%EV -7.92%E -3.00%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.10%EV -10.36%E -2.74%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-28 08:09
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.10%EV -8.90%E -4.05%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.78%EV -9.32%E -3.58%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.11%EV -11.07%E -2.95%K -4.03%G +0.000%10.6%2026-02-28 06:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%5.3%2026-02-28 05:34
NordicBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%5.3%2026-02-28 05:33
Bovada🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%6.3%2026-02-28 00:41
Pinnacle🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.60%2.01I 49.75%NM 46.40%7.2%2026-03-01 12:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%7.8%2026-02-28 17:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%7.8%2026-02-28 17:25
Neds🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%7.8%2026-02-28 17:24
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%7.8%2026-02-28 17:25
Smarkets◎1.74I 57.47%NM 53.23%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.77%8.0%2026-03-01 01:29