The School of Odds
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Almtuna IS v Södertälje SK

Kickoff: 2026-09-30 17:00 UTC

Final: Almtuna IS 4–0 Södertälje SK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Almtuna IS (Local)

Prediction 32.20%3.11fair odd
EV +11.10%
Edge +3.22%
Kelly +4.53%
Growth +0.503%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.55%32.07%32.21%32.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.183.353.4536.36%31.48%29.85%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Södertälje SK (Visit)

Prediction 45.13%2.22fair odd
EV -7.02%
Edge -3.41%
Kelly -6.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.56%45.26%45.10%49.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.851.971.942.0654.05%50.84%51.55%48.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.66%4.41fair odd
EV -3.68%
Edge -0.867%
Kelly -1.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.39%22.67%22.69%23.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.064.104.2525.64%24.65%24.39%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Almtuna IS (Local): 32.20%; Södertälje SK (Visit): 45.13%; Draw: 22.66%. For Almtuna IS (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.11. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.10%.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.63%EV +11.10%E +3.22%K +4.53%G +0.503%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.13%EV -12.44%E -6.41%K -13.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.25%EV -7.08%E -1.73%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-30 16:09
Unibet (SE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.63%EV +11.10%E +3.22%K +4.53%G +0.503%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.13%EV -12.44%E -6.41%K -13.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.25%EV -7.08%E -1.73%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-30 16:10
ATG (SE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.63%EV +11.10%E +3.22%K +4.53%G +0.503%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.13%EV -12.44%E -6.41%K -13.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.25%EV -7.08%E -1.73%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-30 16:10
Svenska Spel🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.63%EV +11.10%E +3.22%K +4.53%G +0.503%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.13%EV -12.44%E -6.41%K -13.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.25%EV -7.08%E -1.73%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-30 16:09
Unibet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV +9.49%E +2.79%K +3.95%G +0.375%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.32%EV -13.79%E -7.22%K -15.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -7.08%E -1.73%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-30 16:10
Unibet (NL)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV +9.49%E +2.79%K +3.95%G +0.375%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.32%EV -13.79%E -7.22%K -15.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -7.08%E -1.73%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-30 16:09
Grosvenor🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV +9.49%E +2.79%K +3.95%G +0.375%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.32%EV -13.79%E -7.22%K -15.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -7.08%E -1.73%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-30 16:09
TABtouch🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV +6.27%E +1.90%K +2.73%G +0.171%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -16.50%E -8.92%K -19.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -11.62%E -2.98%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-30 16:09
Coolbet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.20%EV -1.78%E -0.584%K -0.869%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.41%EV -7.47%E -3.65%K -7.12%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.39%EV -3.68%E -0.867%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-30 16:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.03%EV -6.61%E -2.28%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -7.47%E -3.65%K -7.12%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.66%EV -7.08%E -1.73%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-30 16:45
1xBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -8.22%E -2.88%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.56%EV -7.02%E -3.41%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.24%EV -10.48%E -2.65%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-30 16:46
Marathon Bet🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 32.30%EV -9.19%E -3.26%K -5.05%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 44.65%EV -7.93%E -3.89%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.06%EV -10.48%E -2.65%K -3.55%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-30 16:45
Codere (IT)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.17%EV -9.83%E -3.51%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.03%EV -9.73%E -4.87%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.80%EV -10.48%E -2.65%K -3.55%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-30 16:45
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%EV -11.44%E -4.16%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.90%EV -9.73%E -4.87%K -9.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%EV -9.35%E -2.34%K -3.12%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-30 16:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 43.41%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.59%5.2%2026-09-30 16:40
NordicBet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 43.41%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.59%5.2%2026-09-30 16:40
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%7.1%2026-09-28 19:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%7.1%2026-09-28 19:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%7.1%2026-09-28 19:40
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%7.1%2026-09-28 19:40
Pinnacle🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 43.80%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.20%7.2%2026-09-30 16:50
Smarkets◎2.12I 47.17%NM 43.62%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.38%8.1%2026-09-30 16:50