The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Almtuna IS v Modo Hockey

Kickoff: 2026-09-19 13:00 UTC

Final: Almtuna IS 4–5 Modo Hockey

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Almtuna IS (Local)

Prediction 25.22%3.96fair odd
EV +3.41%
Edge +0.831%
Kelly +1.10%
Growth +0.037%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.37%25.07%25.22%25.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.894.004.1028.57%25.72%25.00%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Modo Hockey (Visit)

Prediction 52.59%1.90fair odd
EV -6.40%
Edge -3.59%
Kelly -8.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.09%52.71%52.59%53.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.741.751.7858.82%57.32%57.14%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.19%4.51fair odd
EV -6.79%
Edge -1.62%
Kelly -2.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.97%22.22%22.19%22.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.124.154.2025.00%24.25%24.10%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Almtuna IS (Local): 25.22%; Modo Hockey (Visit): 52.59%; Draw: 22.19%. For Almtuna IS (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.96. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.41%.

3 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.37%EV +3.41%E +0.831%K +1.10%G +0.037%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.82%EV -6.40%E -3.59%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.81%EV -6.79%E -1.62%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-18 13:10
Unibet (SE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.37%EV +3.41%E +0.831%K +1.10%G +0.037%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.82%EV -6.40%E -3.59%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.81%EV -6.79%E -1.62%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-18 13:10
ATG (SE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.37%EV +3.41%E +0.831%K +1.10%G +0.037%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.82%EV -6.40%E -3.59%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.81%EV -6.79%E -1.62%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-18 13:10
Svenska Spel🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.37%EV +3.41%E +0.831%K +1.10%G +0.037%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.82%EV -6.40%E -3.59%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.81%EV -6.79%E -1.62%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-18 13:10
Unibet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV +0.885%E +0.221%K +0.295%G +0.003%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.64%EV -7.98%E -4.56%K -10.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%EV -9.01%E -2.20%K -2.91%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-18 13:10
Grosvenor🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV +0.885%E +0.221%K +0.295%G +0.003%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.64%EV -7.98%E -4.56%K -10.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%EV -9.01%E -2.20%K -2.91%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-18 13:10
Unibet (NL)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV +0.885%E +0.221%K +0.295%G +0.003%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.64%EV -7.98%E -4.56%K -10.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%EV -9.01%E -2.20%K -2.91%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-18 13:10
TABtouch🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -1.64%E -0.420%K -0.564%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.74%EV -10.60%E -6.24%K -15.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -11.23%E -2.81%K -3.74%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-18 13:10
1xBet🎯3.76I 26.60%NM 24.44%EV -5.17%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.42%EV -9.55%E -5.55%K -13.27%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.14%EV -7.90%E -1.90%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-18 14:14
Marathon Bet🎯3.74I 26.74%NM 24.38%EV -5.67%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.64%EV -10.60%E -6.24%K -15.15%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.97%EV -7.90%E -1.90%K -2.51%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-18 14:10
Unibet (UK)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -6.68%E -1.81%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.92%EV -7.98%E -4.56%K -10.63%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.05%EV -6.79%E -1.62%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-18 14:15
Codere (IT)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.38%EV -10.46%E -2.95%K -4.10%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.09%EV -9.03%E -5.22%K -12.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.53%EV -11.23%E -2.81%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-18 14:20
Betway🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -11.73%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 52.19%EV -10.08%E -5.89%K -14.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.31%EV -11.23%E -2.81%K -3.74%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-18 13:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (3)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%5.3%2026-09-18 14:15
Betsson🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%5.3%2026-09-18 14:15
Smarkets◎2.48I 40.32%NM 36.57%1.43I 69.93%NM 63.43%10.3%2026-09-18 14:20